IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v48y2016i7p1439-1465.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound

Author

Listed:
  • MICHAEL D. BAUER
  • GLENN D. RUDEBUSCH

Abstract

We show that conventional dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) estimated on recent U.S. data severely violate the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and deliver poor forecasts of future short rates. In contrast, shadow‐rate DTSMs account for the ZLB by construction, capture the resulting distributional asymmetry of future short rates, and achieve good forecast performance. These models provide more accurate estimates of the most likely path for future monetary policy—including the timing of policy liftoff from the ZLB and the pace of subsequent policy tightening. We also demonstrate the benefits of including macroeconomic factors in a shadow‐rate DTSM when yields are constrained near the ZLB.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:48:y:2016:i:7:p:1439-1465
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jmcb.12338
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Black, Fischer, 1995. " Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-1376, December.
    2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
    4. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
    5. Yoichi Ueno & Naohiko Baba & Yuji Sakurai, 2006. "The Use of the Black Model of Interest Rates as Options for Monitoring the JGB Market Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    6. Leo Krippner, 2011. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2011-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2007. "Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:48:y:2016:i:7:p:1439-1465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.