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Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound

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  • Michael D. Bauer
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

Obtaining monetary policy expectations from the yield curve is difficult near the zero lower bound (ZLB). Standard dynamic term structure models, which ignore the ZLB, can be misleading. Shadow-rate models are better suited for this purpose, because they account for the distributional asymmetry in projected short rates induced by the ZLB. Besides providing better interest rate fit and forecasts, our shadow-rate models deliver estimates of the future monetary policy liftoff from the ZLB that are closer to survey expectations. We also document significant improvements for inference about monetary policy expectations when macroeconomic factors are included in the term structure model.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2013-18
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2013-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Advances in Econometrics, in: Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman (ed.), Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 75-125, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
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    4. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    5. Scott Joslin & Marcel Priebsch & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1197-1233, June.
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
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    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Macroeconomics - Econometric models;

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