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A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income

Author

Listed:
  • Christensen, Jens H. E.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Lopez, Jose A.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Rudebusch, Glenn D.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

To support the economy, the Federal Reserve amassed a large portfolio of long-term bonds. We assess the Fed's associated interest rate risk--including potential losses to its Treasury securities holdings and declines in remittances to the Treasury. Unlike past examinations of this interest rate risk, we attach probabilities to alternative interest rate scenarios. These probabilities are obtained from a dynamic term structure model that respects the zero lower bound on yields. The resulting probability-based stress test finds that the Fed's losses are unlikely to be large and remittances are unlikely to exhibit more than a brief cessation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christensen, Jens H. E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Papers 14-01, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
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    3. Open Letter to Senator Rand Paul
      by Stephen G. Cecchetti in Huffington Post Business on 2015-09-06 19:54:41

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    Cited by:

    1. Del Negro, Marco & Sims, Christopher A., 2015. "When does a central bank׳s balance sheet require fiscal support?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Huixin Bi & Ms. Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2019. "Fiscal Implications of Interest Rate Normalization in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2019/090, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Caballero, Diego & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 283-297.
    4. Daly, Pierce & Moloney, Kitty, 2017. "Liquidity & Risk Management: Results of a Survey of Large Irish-Domiciled Funds," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 48-62, July.
    5. Hall, Robert E & Reis, Ricardo, 2015. "Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 10741, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Working Paper Series 2021-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2016. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper Series 2016-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Jane Ihrig & Elizabeth Klee & Canlin Li & Min Wei & Joe Kachovec, 2018. "Expectations about the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 341-391, March.
    9. R.J. Galema & S. Lugo, 2017. "When central banks buy corporate bonds: : Target selection and impact of the European Corporate Sector Purchase Program," Working Papers 17-16, Utrecht School of Economics.
    10. Todd Keister & Antoine Martin & James J. McAndrews, 2015. "Floor systems and the Friedman rule: the fiscal arithmetic of open market operations," Staff Reports 754, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Jörg Bibow, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies and central bank profits," IMK Studies 62-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. Donnery, Sharon & Doran, David & Gleeson, Ruth & Carroll, Konstantina, 2017. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and the Balance Sheets of Eurosystem Central Banks," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 79-94, July.
    13. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    14. Eric Monnet & Miklos Vari, 2019. "Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy," IMF Working Papers 2019/176, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    16. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2020. "(Why) do central banks care about their profits?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 018, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    17. De Genaro, Alan, 2016. "Systematic multi-period stress scenarios with an application to CCP risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 119-134.
    18. Hertrich, Markus, 2020. "Foreign exchange interventions under a one-sided target zone regime and the Swiss franc," Discussion Papers 21/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Eric Fischer, 2020. "Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(2), pages 189-225, August.
    20. Joerg Bibow, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policies and Central Bank Profits: Seigniorage as Fiscal Revenue in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_916, Levy Economics Institute.
    21. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," DNB Working Papers 510, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    22. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
    23. Engle, Robert & Roussellet, Guillaume & Siriwardane, Emil, 2017. "Scenario generation for long run interest rate risk assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 333-347.
    24. Atsushi Tanaka, 2020. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Discussion Paper Series 208, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2020.
    25. Devine, Kenneth & Dooley, Jennifer & Meehan, Ciaran & Menton, Aisling, 2017. "Consolidated Banking Data: Introducing Enhanced Statistics for Ireland," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 63-78, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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