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Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models

In this article I provide an empirical analysis of the term structure of interest rates using the affine class of term-structure models introduced by Duffie and Kan. I estimate these models by combining time series and cross-section information in a theoretically consistent way. In the estimation I use a Kalman filter based on a discretization of the continuous-time factor process and allow for a general measurement-error structure. I provide evidence that a three-factor affine model with correlated factors is able to provide an adequate fit of the cross-section and the dynamics of the term structure. The three factors can be given the usual interpretation of level, steepness, and curvature.

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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 300-314

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:18:y:2000:i:3:p:300-314
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  1. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
  2. Pagan, A.R., 1996. "Simulation Based Estimation of Some Factor Models in Econometrics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 521, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & George G. Pennacchi, 1996. "The behavior of interest rates implied by the term structure of Eurodollar future," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug, pages 426-451.
  4. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
  5. repec:fth:inseep:9215 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
  7. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1998. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor In Bond Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 62-72, February.
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  10. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  11. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
  12. Jin-Chuan Duan & Jean-Guy Simonato, 1995. "Estimating and Testing Exponential Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-44, CIRANO.
  13. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  14. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1997. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 6128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Geyer, Alois L J & Pichler, Stefan, 1999. "A State-Space Approach to Estimate and Test Multifactor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-30, Spring.
  16. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  17. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  18. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-82, September.
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