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A nonparametric dimension test of the term structure

Listed author(s):
  • Rubio, Gonzalo
  • Gil-Bazo, Javier

This paper addresses the problem of conducting a nonparametric test of the dimension of the state variable vector in a continuous-time term structure model. The paper shows that a bivariate diffusion function of the short rate process is a sufficient condition for the term structure to be driven by two stochastic factors. Using an easy-to-implement kernel smoothing method the number of state variables can be tested under very unrestrictive assumptions. The results suggest that continuous-time models for the US interest rates should contain at least two stochastic factors.

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File URL: http://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/133/wb012106.pdf?sequence=1
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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa in its series DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB with number wb012106.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb012106
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.business.uc3m.es/es/index

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  1. Broze, Laurence & Scaillet, Olivier & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1995. "Testing for continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 199-223, September.
  2. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
  3. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
  4. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  5. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
  6. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  7. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
  8. Backus, David K & Zin, Stanley E, 1993. "Long-Memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 681-700, August.
  9. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1997. "Estimation Of Continuous-Time Models For Stock Returns And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 135-168, January.
  10. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-487.
  11. Danielsson, Jon, 1998. "Multivariate stochastic volatility models: Estimation and a comparison with VGARCH models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 155-173, June.
  12. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
  13. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. " Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
  14. Robert C. Merton, 1975. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 375-393.
  15. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  16. Stanton, Richard, 1997. " A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1973-2002, December.
  17. Peter Ritchken & L. Sankarasubramanian, 1995. "Volatility Structures Of Forward Rates And The Dynamics Of The Term Structure," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 55-72.
  18. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, "undated". "Discrete time models of bond pricing," GSIA Working Papers 251, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  19. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  20. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  21. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  22. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January.
  23. Gibbons, Michael R & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1993. "A Test of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model of the Term Structure," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 619-658.
  24. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  25. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, 02.
  26. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
  27. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
  28. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:135-68 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
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