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A nonparametric dimension test of the term structure

Listed author(s):
  • Rubio, Gonzalo
  • Gil-Bazo, Javier

This paper addresses the problem of conducting a nonparametric test of the dimension of the state variable vector in a continuous-time term structure model. The paper shows that a bivariate diffusion function of the short rate process is a sufficient condition for the term structure to be driven by two stochastic factors. Using an easy-to-implement kernel smoothing method the number of state variables can be tested under very unrestrictive assumptions. The results suggest that continuous-time models for the US interest rates should contain at least two stochastic factors.

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File URL: http://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/133/wb012106.pdf?sequence=1
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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa in its series DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB with number wb012106.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb012106
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.business.uc3m.es/es/index

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  1. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
  2. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 1998. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Finance 9808005, EconWPA.
  3. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
  4. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339 Elsevier.
  5. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Estimation of Continuous Time Models for Stock Returns and Interest Rates," Working Papers 95-53, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  6. Robert C. Merton, 1975. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 375-393.
  7. Danielsson, Jon, 1998. "Multivariate stochastic volatility models: Estimation and a comparison with VGARCH models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 155-173, June.
  8. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1998. "Discrete-Time Models of Bond Pricing," NBER Working Papers 6736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. de Jong, Frank, 1999. "Time-series and Cross-section Information in Affine Term Structure Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Geyer, Alois L J & Pichler, Stefan, 1999. "A State-Space Approach to Estimate and Test Multifactor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-130, Spring.
  11. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine. & Bickel, Peter J. & Stoker, Thomas M., 1994. "Goodness-of-fit tests for regression using kernel methods," Working papers 3747-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  12. Brown, Stephen J & Dybvig, Philip H, 1986. " The Empirical Implications of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 617-630, July.
  13. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1332, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. BROZE, Laurence & SCAILLET, Olivier & ZAKOIAN , Jean-Michel, 1993. "Testing for Continuous-Time Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," CORE Discussion Papers 1993031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  15. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1993. "Long-memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Darrell Duffie & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1990. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," NBER Technical Working Papers 0087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-487.
  18. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  19. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  20. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:135-68 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  22. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  23. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
  24. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
  25. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
  26. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  27. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
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