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A Nonparametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

  • Gil-Bazo Javier

    ()

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

  • Rubio Gonzalo

    (Universidad del Pais Vasco)

In an economy with multiple sources of risk, the short-term interest rate does not capture all the information that determines the conditional distribution of bond yields. This is also true for path-dependent term structure models. In either case, the current short rate level is not a sufficient statistic for the conditional density of future short rates. This paper studies the empirical relevance of both issues from a time-series nonparametric perspective. The analysis is formulated as a test for the dependence of the short rate drift and diffusion on variables other than the short rate, and exploits Ait-Sahalia, Bickel, and Stocker (2001) dimension reduction method. The paper explores the finite sample performance of the method and applies the test to US interest rate data. Results reject a single-factor Markovian model, although conclusions are sensitive to the choice of additional conditioning variables.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 1-28

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:8:y:2004:i:3:n:6
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