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Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models

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  • Torben G. Andersen
  • Luca Benzoni

    () (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

We investigate whether bonds span the volatility risk in the U.S. Treasury market, as predicted by most `a±ne' term structure models. To this end, we construct powerful and model-free empirical measures of the quadratic yield variation for a cross-section of ¯xed-maturity zero-coupon bonds (`realized yield volatility') through the use of high-frequency data. We ¯nd that the yield curve fails to span yield volatility, as the systematic volatility factors are largely unrelated to the cross- section of yields. We conclude that a broad class of a±ne di®usive, Gaussian-quadratic and a±ne jump-di®usive models is incapable of accommodating the observed yield volatility dynamics. An important implication is that the bond markets per se are incomplete and yield volatility risk cannot be hedged by taking positions solely in the Treasury bond market. We also advocate using the empirical realized yield volatility measures more broadly as a basis for speci¯cation testing and (parametric) model selection within the term structure literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2007. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2007-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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