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Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility In The Presence Of Jumps

Author

Listed:
  • Bent Jesper Christensen

    (University of Aarhus and CREATES)

  • Morten Ø. Nielsen

    (Queen's University and CREATES)

  • Thomas Busch

    (Danske Bank and CREATES)

Abstract

We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniques to compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jump components, and measures based on prices of exchange rate futures options, allowing calculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationally efficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation for implied volatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump component of future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and that option implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component.

Suggested Citation

  • Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ø. Nielsen & Thomas Busch, 2005. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility In The Presence Of Jumps," Working Paper 1187, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1187
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Busch, Thomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2011. "The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 48-57, January.
    2. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & van Campen, Bart, 2008. "A new approach to characterizing and forecasting electricity price volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 728-743.
    3. Tomáš Bunčák, 2016. "Exchange Rates Forecasting: Can Jump Models Combined with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Help?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 527-546.
    4. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ø. Nielsen & Thomas Busch, 2006. "The Information Content Of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility And Price Jumps," Working Paper 1188, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. Bunčák, Tomáš, 2013. "Jump Processes in Exchange Rates Modeling," MPRA Paper 49882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tomáš Bunčák, . "Exchange Rates Forecasting: Can Jump Models Combined with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Help?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-20.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bipower variation; currency options; exchange rates; implied volatility; jumps; realized volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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