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Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds

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  • Chernov, Mikhail
  • Creal, Drew
  • Hördahl, Peter

Abstract

We study the dynamic properties of sovereign bonds in emerging markets and their associated risk premiums. We focus on the properties of credit spreads, exchange rates, and their interaction. Relying on the term structure of local currency bonds issued by Asia-Pacific sovereigns, we find that local variables are significant in the dynamics of currency and credit risk, and the components of bond risk premiums reflecting these risks. Local currency bonds dramatically improve the investment frontier.

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  • Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2020. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14986
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    2. Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic and Market Indicators in Explaining Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Spread Changes: Evidence from Türkiye," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 145-164, April.
    3. Helena Chuliá & Sabuhi Khalili & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Monitoring time-varying systemic risk in sovereign debt and currency markets with generative AI," IREA Working Papers 202402, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    4. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Bertrand Candelon & Rubens Moura, 2024. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1558-1587.
    6. Jassim Aladwani, 2023. "Wavelet Coherence and Continuous Wavelet Transform - Implementation and Application to the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Oil Price for Importing and Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 531-541, July.
    7. Sunal, Onur & Yağcı, Filiz, 2024. "The determinants of Turkish CDS volatility: An ARDL approach covering COVID period," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Rathi, Sawan & Mohapatra, Sanket & Sahay, Arvind, 2022. "Central bank gold reserves and sovereign credit risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    9. Dim, Chukwuma & Koerner, Kevin & Wolski, Marcin & Zwart, Sanne, 2022. "Hot off the press: News-implied sovereign default risk," EIB Working Papers 2022/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    10. Afshan, Sahar & Yaqoob, Tanzeela & Zaied, Younes Ben & Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2024. "Oil shocks and currency behavior: A dual approach to digital and traditional currencies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Jiang, Yong & Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Tail connectedness between category-specific policy uncertainty, sovereign debt risk, and stock volatility during a high inflation period," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging bond markets; Credit risk; Currency risk; Twin ds; Affine model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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