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The Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation

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  • Seunghoon Na
  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
  • Martin Uribe
  • Vivian Z. Yue

Abstract

A salient characteristic of sovereign defaults is that they are typically accompanied by large devaluations. This paper presents new evidence of this empirical regularity known as the Twin Ds and proposes a model that rationalizes it as an optimal policy outcome. The model combines limited enforcement of debt contracts and downward nominal wage rigidity. Under optimal policy, default is shown to occur during con- tractions. The role of default is to free up resources for domestic absorption, and the role of exchange-rate devaluation is to lower the real value of wages, thereby reducing involuntary unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Seunghoon Na & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2014. "The Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 20314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20314
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    1. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Quantitative properties of sovereign default models: solution methods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 919-933, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xuan Wang, 2019. "When Do Currency Unions Benefit From Default ?," 2019 Papers pwa938, Job Market Papers.
    2. Gu, Grace Weishi, 2015. "A Tale of Two Countries: Sovereign Default, Exchange Rate, and Trade," MPRA Paper 61900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kris James Mitchener & Gonçalo Pina, 2016. "Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 22844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kobielarz, Michal, 2018. "The economics of monetary unions," Other publications TiSEM b0293536-68ec-4905-bffd-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Kobielarz, Michał L. & Uras, Burak R., 2018. "Sovereign default, exit and contagion in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2019. "Sovereigns going bust: Estimating the cost of default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-21.
    7. Prein, Timm, 2019. "Persistent Unemployment, Sovereign Debt Crises, and the Impact of Haircuts," Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," Department of Economics Working Papers 18-14, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    9. Asonuma, Tamon, 2014. "Sovereign defaults, external debt and real exchange rate dynamics," MPRA Paper 55133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Arellano, Cristina & Bai, Yan & Mihalache, Gabriel, 2018. "Default risk, sectoral reallocation, and persistent recessions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 182-199.
    11. Seon Tae Kim & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2014. "Maturity and Repayment Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2014 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Kris James Mitchener & Gonçalo Pina, 2016. "Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," CESifo Working Paper Series 6212, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Mikhail Chernov & Drew Creal & Peter Hördahl, 2019. "Determinants of Asia-Pacific government bond yields," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asia-Pacific fixed income markets: evolving structure, participation and pricing, volume 102, pages 29-39, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)," Department of Economics Working Papers 19-02, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    16. Stangebye, Zachary, 2015. "Dynamic Panics: Theory and Application to the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 69967, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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