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A Model of the Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Vivian Yue

    (Emory University)

  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe

    (Columbia University)

  • Martin Uribe

    (Columbia University)

  • Seunghoon Na

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

This paper characterizes jointly optimal default and exchange-rate policy in a small open economy with limited enforcement of debt contracts and downward nominal wage rigidity. Under optimal policy, default occurs during contractions and is accompanied by large devaluations. The latter inflate away real wages thereby avoiding massive unemployment. Thus, the Twin Ds phenomenon emerges endogenously as the optimal outcome. By contrast, under fixed exchange rates, optimal default takes place in the context of large involuntary unemployment. Fixed-exchange-rate economies are shown to have stronger default incentives and therefore support less external debt than economies with optimally floating rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivian Yue & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe & Seunghoon Na, 2015. "A Model of the Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation," 2015 Meeting Papers 419, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:419
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Model of the Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2015-09-11 19:44:53

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kris James Mitchener & Gonçalo Pina, 2016. "Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 22844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jesse Schreger & Wenxin Du, 2014. "Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets," Working Paper 209056, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Neele Balke, 2018. "The Employment Cost of Sovereign Default," 2018 Meeting Papers 1256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. repec:eee:inecon:v:112:y:2018:i:c:p:182-199 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gu, Grace Weishi, 2015. "A Tale of Two Countries: Sovereign Default, Exchange Rate, and Trade," MPRA Paper 61900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Seon Tae Kim & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2014. "Maturity and Repayment Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2014 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Pablo Ottonello & Ignacio Presno & Javier Bianchi, 2017. "Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk, and Unemployment," 2017 Meeting Papers 1382, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Arellano, Cristina & Bai, Yan & Mihalache, Gabriel, 2018. "Default risk, sectoral reallocation, and persistent recessions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 182-199.
    9. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2015. "Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions," IWH Discussion Papers 18/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Asonuma, Tamon, 2014. "Sovereign defaults, external debt and real exchange rate dynamics," MPRA Paper 55133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Takefumi Yamazaki, 2018. "Financial friction sources in emerging economies: Structural estimation of sovereign default models," Discussion papers ron303, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    12. Stangebye, Zachary, 2015. "Dynamic Panics: Theory and Application to the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 69967, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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