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Self-fulfilling crises with default and devaluation

Author

Listed:
  • José-María Da-Rocha

    ()

  • Eduardo-Luis Giménez

    ()

  • Francisco-Xavier Lores

    ()

Abstract

We characterize optimal debt policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of defaults and devaluations in which self-fulfilling crises can arise. When the government cannot commit to repay its debt and cannot commit to maintain the exchange rate, consumers’ expectations of devaluation make the safe level of government debt very low. We show that, when the debt is in the crises zone—where self-fulfilling crisis can occur—the government finds it optimal to reduce the debt to exit the zone. The lower the probability that consumers assign to devaluation, however, the greater is the number of periods that the government will choose to take to exit the crisis zone. We argue that our model can help understand events in Argentina in 2001–2002 and throw light on some aspects of the current EMU sovereign debt crisis. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • José-María Da-Rocha & Eduardo-Luis Giménez & Francisco-Xavier Lores, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises with default and devaluation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(3), pages 499-535, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:53:y:2013:i:3:p:499-535
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-012-0702-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Ivan Pastine, 2000. "Devaluation of fixed exchange rates: optimal strategy in the presence of speculation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(3), pages 631-661.
    7. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Cuadra & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Santiago Garcia-Verdu, 2018. "On the role of financial aid in a default episode," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Diego Perez & Pablo Ottonello, 2016. "The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt," 2016 Meeting Papers 596, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. repec:spr:joecth:v:64:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00199-015-0939-y is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Seunghoon Na & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2014. "A Model of the Twin DS: Optimal Default and Devaluation," Emory Economics 1404, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    5. Du, Wenxin & Schreger, Jesse, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath, 2013. "Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises," NBER Working Papers 19516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2015. "Monetary policy and sovereign debt vulnerability," Working Papers 1517, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    8. Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge & Colla, Esteban & Da-Rocha, Jose-Maria, 2014. "Bounding the productivity default shock : Evidence from the The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," MPRA Paper 59617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Johan Winbladh, 2017. "Systemic Banking Crisis and Macroeconomic Leading Indicators," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 4707470, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    10. M. Peiris & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2013. "Savings and default," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(1), pages 153-180, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default; Devaluation; Self-fulfilling crisis; E6; F3; F34;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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