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Devaluation of fixed exchange rates: optimal strategy in the presence of speculation

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Pastine

    (Economics Department, Bilkent University, 06533 Bilkent, Ankara, TURKEY)

Abstract

This paper analyzes devaluations in a fixed exchange rate system by endogenizing both the speculation and devaluation decisions. It is shown that deterministic devaluation rules are generally sub-optimal for the central bank. In order to deter speculation the central bank introduces uncertainty into the timing of devaluation. The nature this mixed strategy is derived, as is the optimal strategy for speculators. The analysis allows an explanation of successful devaluations that are not precipitated by a speculative attacks, even under perfect capital mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Pastine, 2000. "Devaluation of fixed exchange rates: optimal strategy in the presence of speculation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(3), pages 631-661.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:15:y:2000:i:3:p:631-661
    Note: Received: May 17, 1999; revised version: June 2, 1999
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pastine, Ivan, 2002. "Speculation and the decision to abandon a fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 197-229, June.
    2. José-María Da-Rocha & Eduardo-Luis Giménez & Francisco-Xavier Lores, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises with default and devaluation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(3), pages 499-535, August.
    3. Alexandre Cunha, 2013. "On the relevance of floating exchange rate policies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(2), pages 357-382, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative attack; Optimising balance-of-payments crises.;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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