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Speculation and the decision to abandon a fixed exchange rate regime

  • Pastine, Ivan

This Paper demonstrates that the implications of first-generation speculative attack models do not hold if there is a rational, forward-looking policy maker. The policy maker will be able to avoid predictable speculative attacks by introducing uncertainty into the decisions of speculators. This changes the sudden attack into a prolonged period of increasing speculation and uncertainty. In addition, the model provides useful insights into the viability of temporary nominal anchor policies, and a theoretical foundation for a useful empirical methodology.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 57 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 197-229

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:57:y:2002:i:1:p:197-229
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  5. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
  6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  7. F Gulcin Ozkan & Alan Sutherland, . "A Model of the ERM Crisis," Discussion Papers 94/2, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
  9. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 3919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
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  17. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
  19. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  20. Velasco, Andres, 1997. "When are fixed exchange rates really fixed?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 5-25, October.
  21. Leo K. Simon and Maxwell B. Stinchcombe., 1987. "Extensive Form Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Economics Working Papers 8746, University of California at Berkeley.
  22. Andersen, Torben M, 1994. "Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Ivan Pastine, 2000. "Devaluation of fixed exchange rates: optimal strategy in the presence of speculation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(3), pages 631-661.
  24. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber & Charles Kramer, 1995. "Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Another Linear Example," NBER Working Papers 5318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
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