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Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicaciÛn a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta espanola

  • M. Araceli RodrÌguez LÛpez

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Studies on the Spanish Economy with number 90.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:90
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  1. Bruce Mizrach, 1993. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Research Paper 9302, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1984. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 208-17, May.
  3. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," CEPR Discussion Papers 852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
  6. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June.
  8. Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
  9. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  10. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1993. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," NBER Working Papers 4448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  12. Masson, Paul R, 1995. "Gaining and Losing ERM Credibility: The Case of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 571-82, May.
  13. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
  14. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  15. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
  16. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
  17. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
  18. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  20. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," NBER Working Papers 6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Werner, Alejandro M., 1995. "Exchange rate target zones, realignments and the interest rate differential: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 353-367, November.
  23. Ioannis Halikias, 1994. "Testing the Credibility of Belgium's Exchange Rate Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 350-366, June.
  24. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
  25. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "A regime-switching approach to the study of speculative attacks: A focus on EMS crises," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 299-334.
  26. J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Papers 887, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  27. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August.
  28. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  29. Pierre Siklos & Rod Tarajos, 1996. "Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-59, January.
  30. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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