Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models
A time-varying stochastic devaluation risk is introduced in a model of exchange rate target zones. The model produces realistic patterns of covariation between exchange rates and interest rate differentials, which previous target zone models have been unable to do. A "drift adjustment" method to estimate devaluation expectations from data is suggested.
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|Date of creation:||1990|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.|
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- Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," Weiss Center Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones," International Finance Discussion Papers 388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
317, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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- Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," NBER Working Papers 2835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Froot, Kenneth & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, "undated". "Monetary Contracting between Central Banks and the Design of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones (Reprint 035)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Shula Pessach & Assaf Razin, 1991. "Targeting the Exchange Rate: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1991. "Sustainable Intervention Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 360, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- W. R. M. Perraudin, 1990. "Exchange Rate Bands with Point Process Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 90/108, International Monetary Fund.
- Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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