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Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals

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Listed:
  • Alun H. Thomas

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Recent incidents of exchange rate collapse have provoked interest in how much these events are determined by economic fundamentals. This paper considers whether interest rate differentials are appropriate measures of the risk of devaluation and whether this measure of devaluation risk reflects the movements of variables that capture internal and external balance. The paper finds that interest rate differentials reflect devaluation risk but that movements in fundamental variables in France and Italy have only a weak effect on devaluation risk. The most significant influence on devaluation risk is the position of the currency in its band in that the lower the exchange value of a currency is within the band, the greater is the perceived risk of devaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:41:y:1994:i:2:p:262-285
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Koh, Seng Kee & Fong, Wai Mun & Chan, Fabrice, 2007. "A Cardan's discriminant approach to predicting currency crashes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-148, February.
    2. María I. Campos & José L. Torres & Esmeralda Villegas, 2006. "The credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band system," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    3. R. Sean Craig, 1994. "Who will join EMU? Impact of the Maastricht convergence criteria on economic policy choice and performance," International Finance Discussion Papers 480, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. G J Bratsiotis & W Robinson, 2002. "Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0214, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Simón Sosvilla‐Rivero & Francisco Pérez‐Bermejo, 2008. "Political and Institutional Factors in Regime Changes in the ERM: An Application of Duration Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 1049-1077, August.
    6. Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2003. "Explaining ERM realignments: Insights from optimising models of currency crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 491-507, December.
    7. Peter Tillmann, 2003. "The Regime‐Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(4), pages 409-431, November.
    8. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
    9. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    10. M. Araceli Rodríguez López, "undated". "Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicación a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta espanola," Studies on the Spanish Economy 90, FEDEA.
    11. Bernhardsen, Tom, 2000. "The relationship between interest rate differentials and macroeconomic variables: a panel data study for European countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-308, April.
    12. Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Les modèles de crise de change : un essai de synthèse en relation avec la crise du franc de 1992-1993," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 147-162.
    13. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    14. Amato, Amedeo & Tronzano, Marco, 2000. "Fiscal policy, debt management and exchange rate credibility: Lessons from the recent Italian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 921-943, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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