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Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico

This paper considers a model of debt stabilitisation under a fixed exchange rate in which a currency crisis can develop as the result of self-fulfilling speculation, following a bifurcation in the behaviour of economic fundamentals. Based on this theoretical framework and by exploiting the test developed by Jeanne (1997), this paper provides evidence that self-fulfilling speculation was at work in the 1994 Mexican crisis. In terms of fundamentals, we show that the critical variables in generating the Mexican crisis were the fast rise in the US$-denominated public debt (tesebonos), the appreciated real exchange rate and the small rises in unemployment and primary deficit.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr23.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 23.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:23
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?," NBER Working Papers 5714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dagsvik, John & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1994. "Was the Great Depression a low-level equilibrium?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1711-1729, December.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  4. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Country fund discounts and the Mexican crisis of December 1994: did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 563, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1996. "Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies," NBER Working Papers 5789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
  10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
  11. Willem H. Buiter, 1990. "Principles of Budgetary and Financial Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262524139, June.
  12. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
  13. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber & Charles Kramer, 1995. "Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Another Linear Example," NBER Working Papers 5318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Masson, Paul R, 1999. "Credibility, Reputation, and the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 70-84, February.
  16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Tabellini, Guido & La Via, Vincenzo, 1989. "Money, Deficit and Public Debt in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 15-25, February.
  18. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
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