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Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises

  • Pierre-Richard Agenor
  • Jagdeep S. Bhandari
  • Robert P. Flood

This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy are discussed.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3919.

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Date of creation: Nov 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as IMF, Vol. 39, no. 2 (1992): 357-394.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3919
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  1. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1984. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 90-107, February.
  2. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  3. Djajic, Slobodan, 1989. "Dynamics of the exchange rate in anticipation of pegging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-571, December.
  4. Alessandro Penati & George Pennacchi, . "Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Collapse of a Fixed-Exchange Rate Regime," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 25-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  5. Blackburn, Keith, 1988. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes and exchange rate dynamics: Some further examples," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 373-385.
  6. Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
  7. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 241-50, January.
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-74, February.
  9. Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
  10. Grilli, Vittorio U., 1986. "Buying and selling attacks on fixed exchange rate systems," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 143-156, February.
  11. Salant, Stephen W, 1983. "The Vulnerability of Price Stabilization Schemes to Speculative Attack," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-38, February.
  12. Alain Ize & Guillermo Ortiz, 1987. "Fiscal Rigidities, Public Debt, and Capital Flight," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 311-332, June.
  13. Connolly, Michael, 1986. "The speculative attack on the peso and the real exchange rate: Argentina, 1979-1981," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages S117-S130, March.
  14. Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan, 1993. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations, Speculative Attack, and Capital Controls," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 721-30, November.
  15. Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 1103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Otani, Kiyoshi, 1989. "A collapse of a fixed rate regime with a discrete realignment of the exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 250-269, September.
  17. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
  18. Willman, Alpo, 1987. "Speculative attacks on the currency with uncertain monetary policy reactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 75-78.
  19. Cumby, Robert E. & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Financial policy and speculative runs with a crawling peg: Argentina 1979-1981," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 111-127, August.
  20. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1986. "Short-term and long-term interest rates in a monetary model of a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3-4), pages 291-311, May.
  21. Claessens, Stijn, 1988. "Balance-of-payments crises in a perfect foresight optimizing model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 363-372.
  22. Harris Dellas & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Self-fulfillment Expectations, Speculation Attacks, and Capitol Controls," NBER Working Papers 2625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Sebastian Edwards & Peter Montiel, 1989. "Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Andersen, Torben M & Risager, Ole, 1991. "The Role of Credibility for the Effects of a Change in the Exchange-Rate Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 85-98, January.
  25. Bacchetta, Philippe, 1990. "Temporary capital controls in a balance-of- payments crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 246-257, September.
  26. Connolly, Michael B & Taylor, Dean, 1984. "The Exact Timing of the Collapse of an Exchange Rate Regime and Its Impact on the Relative Price of Traded Goods," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 194-207, May.
  27. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 215-232, November.
  28. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 71-83, October.
  29. Willem H. Buiter, 1986. "Borrowing to Defend the Exchange Rate and the Timing and Magnitude of Speculative Attacks," NBER Working Papers 1844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Blackburn, Keith & Christensen, Michael, 1989. "Monetary Policy and Policy Credibility: Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-45, March.
  31. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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