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Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises

  • Pierre-Richard Agenor
  • Jagdeep S. Bhandari
  • Robert P. Flood

This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy are discussed.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3919.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3919.

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Date of creation: Nov 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as IMF, Vol. 39, no. 2 (1992): 357-394.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3919
Note: ITI IFM
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National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

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  1. Harris Dellas & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Self-fulfillment Expectations, Speculation Attacks, and Capitol Controls," NBER Working Papers 2625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alessandro Penati & George Pennacchi, . "Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Collapse of a Fixed-Exchange Rate Regime," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 25-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 1103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," NBER Working Papers 2998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-74, February.
  6. Cumby, Robert E. & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Financial policy and speculative runs with a crawling peg: Argentina 1979-1981," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 111-127, August.
  7. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 215-232, November.
  8. Sebastian Edwards & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(4), pages 875-903, December.
  9. Salant, Stephen W, 1983. "The Vulnerability of Price Stabilization Schemes to Speculative Attack," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-38, February.
  10. Blackburn, Keith, 1988. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes and exchange rate dynamics: Some further examples," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 373-385.
  11. Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
  12. Djajic, Slobodan, 1989. "Dynamics of the exchange rate in anticipation of pegging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-571, December.
  13. Buiter, Willem H., 1986. "Borrowing to Defend the Exchange Rate and the Timing and Magnitude of Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 95, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1985. "Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates in a Monetary Model of a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 1716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1981. "Gold monetization and gold discipline," International Finance Discussion Papers 190, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Alain Ize & Guillermo Ortiz, 1987. "Fiscal Rigidities, Public Debt, and Capital Flight," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 311-332, June.
  17. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Connolly, Michael, 1986. "The speculative attack on the peso and the real exchange rate: Argentina, 1979-1981," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages S117-S130, March.
  19. Dellas, H. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Self-Fullfilling Expectations, Speculative Attacks And Capital Controls," RCER Working Papers 138, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  20. Claessens, Stijn, 1988. "Balance-of-payments crises in a perfect foresight optimizing model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 363-372.
  21. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 71-83, October.
  22. Grilli, Vittorio U., 1986. "Buying and selling attacks on fixed exchange rate systems," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 143-156, February.
  23. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  24. Andersen, Torben M & Risager, Ole, 1991. "The Role of Credibility for the Effects of a Change in the Exchange-Rate Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 85-98, January.
  25. Willman, Alpo, 1987. "Speculative attacks on the currency with uncertain monetary policy reactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 75-78.
  26. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
  27. Bacchetta, Philippe, 1990. "Temporary capital controls in a balance-of- payments crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 246-257, September.
  28. Blackburn, Keith & Christensen, Michael, 1989. "Monetary Policy and Policy Credibility: Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-45, March.
  29. Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
  30. Otani, Kiyoshi, 1989. "A collapse of a fixed rate regime with a discrete realignment of the exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 250-269, September.
  31. Connolly, Michael B & Taylor, Dean, 1984. "The Exact Timing of the Collapse of an Exchange Rate Regime and Its Impact on the Relative Price of Traded Goods," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 194-207, May.
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