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Finanial Policy and Speculative Runs with a Crawling Peg: Argentina 1979-1981


  • Robert E. Cumby
  • Sweder van Wijnbergen


In this paper we present a model of a balance-of-payments crisis and use it to examine the Argentine experiment with a crawling peg between December 1978 and February 1981. The approach taken allows us to examine the evolution of a crisis when the collapse is not a perfectly-foreseen event. The implementation of the model yields plausible values of the one-month ahead probabilities of a collapse of the crawling peg. The probabilities exhibit a sharp increase in the middle of 1980 and indicate a significant loss of credibility throughout the remainder of the year. The results suggest that viability of an exchange rate regime depends strongly on the domestic credit policy followed by the authorities. If this policy is not consistent with the exchange rate policy pursued by the authorities, confidence in the exchange rate policy is undermined.

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  • Robert E. Cumby & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Finanial Policy and Speculative Runs with a Crawling Peg: Argentina 1979-1981," NBER Working Papers 2376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2376
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    2. Stulz, Rene M., 1987. "Time-varying risk premia, imperfect information and the forward: Exchange rate," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 171-177.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Schabert & Sweder J G van Wijnbergen, 2014. "Sovereign Default and the Stability of Inflation-Targeting Regimes," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 261-287, June.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Amine Mati & Nada Choueiri, 2009. "Thirty Years of Currency Crises in Argentina: External Shocks or Domestic Fragility?," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 81-123, August.
    3. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    4. Dilip K. Das, 2001. "Stimulants to capital inflows into emerging markets and the recent role of speculators," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 25-44.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Dapontas Dimitrios, 2014. "The Argentinian Peso Crisis (2014)," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 61(2), pages 149-159, December.
    7. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Rocha, Robert & Anand, Ritu, 1989. "Inflation, external debt, and financial sector reform : a quantitative approach to consistent fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 261, The World Bank.
    8. Christian C. Starck, 1989. "How are the key Finnish market interest rates determined?," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 39-47, Spring.
    9. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 3919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2005. "Unstable Debt/GDP Dynamics as an Early Warning Indicator," Research Memorandum 016, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    12. Ahec Šonje, Amina, 1999. "Leading Indicators of Currency and Banking Crises: Croatia and the World," MPRA Paper 82574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Dapontas Dimitrios, 2012. "Were the Currency Crises in Eastern Europe (1995-2008) Predictable? An Empirical Approach," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 59(2), pages 15-28, December.
    14. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    15. William R. Melick, 1996. "Estimation of speculative attack models: Mexico yet again," BIS Working Papers 36, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "External Adjustment in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Papua New Guinea," IMF Working Papers 17/267, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Tassos G. Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2006. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models," Working Papers 52, Bank of Greece.
    18. Safdar Ullah Khan & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2007. "An Analysis of Pakistan s Vulnerability to Economic Crisis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 597-610.
    19. Marcin Sasin, 2002. "Predicting Currency Crises, the Ultimate Significance of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Linear Specifications with Nonlinear Extensions," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0224, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Empirics of Currency Crises: A Duration Analysis Approach," Carleton Economic Papers 11-11, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    21. Safdar Ullah Khan & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2008. "An Analysis of Pakistan's Vulnerability to Crisis," SBP Working Paper Series 21, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    22. Schnatz, Bernd, 1998. "Macroeconomic determinants of currency turbulences in emerging markets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1998,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
    24. Robert P Flood & Juan Yepez & Nancy P. Marion, 2010. "A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/227, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Brooks, Chris & Reveiz, Alejandro H., 2002. "A model for exchange rates with crawling bands--an application to the Colombian peso," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 483-503.

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