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Valuták sebezhetősége pénzügyi válságok a kilencvenes években
[Vulnerability of currencies financial crises in the nineties]

Author

Listed:
  • Árvai, Zsófia
  • Vincze, János

Abstract

A feltörekvő piacokon a kilencvenes évek bizonyos valutaválságainak tapasztalatai, valamint az elméleti és empirikus szakirodalom feldolgozása segítségével. Röviden kitér Magyarország értékelésére is a sebezhetőség szempontjából. A legfontosabb tanulságnak az tekinthető, hogy a makroökonómiai stabilitás és jó teljesítmény szükséges, ám nem elegendő ahhoz, hogy egy ország valutája ne legyen spekulatív támadásnak kitéve. A válságok előrejelzésének nincs általánosan érvényes szabályrendszere. Mivel a válságok nagyon költséges események, jobbnak látszik egy olyan konzervatív" magatartás, amely komolyan veszi a sebezhetőség bármilyen kvantifikálható vagy akár csak kvalitatív jeleit is. Lényeges ugyanis a várakozások szerepe, amelyekre úgy tűnik nem könnyű múltbeli adatok alapján következtetni. Hangsúlyozni kell, hogy az általános szabályrendszer hiányából nem az következik, hogy reménytelenek a spekulatív támadások elkerülésére irányuló próbálkozások, inkább az, hogy mivel a valutaválságoknak számos kiváltó oka lehet a korábban veszélyforrásnak tekintett tényezők mellé újak sorakoztak fel.

Suggested Citation

  • Árvai, Zsófia & Vincze, János, 1998. "Valuták sebezhetősége pénzügyi válságok a kilencvenes években [Vulnerability of currencies financial crises in the nineties]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 509-533.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jankovics, László, 2001. "Bara Zoltán-Csaba László (szerk.): Small Economies'. Adjustment to Global Tendencies Aula kiadó, Budapest, 2000, 430 oldal [Bara Zoltán-Csaba László (ed.): Small Economies'. Adjustment to Global Te," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 891-894.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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