IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ucbewp/233613.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Was the French Franc Crisis a Sunspot Equilibrium?

Author

Listed:
  • Jeanne, Olivier
  • Masson, Paul

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which speculation against the French franc in 1992-93 was motivated by the fundamentals or resulted from a sunspot phenomenon. We develop a model of currency crises which encompasses both hypotheses about the origin of speculation. The estimation shows that the model with sunspots not only better tracks the episodes of speculation, but also gives a better account of the relationship between the fundamentals and the devaluation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 1997. "Was the French Franc Crisis a Sunspot Equilibrium?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233613, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbewp:233613
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/233613
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manning, Alan, 1992. "Multiple equilibria in the British labour market : Some empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1333-1365, October.
    2. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-519, March.
    3. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
    4. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1984. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 90-107, February.
    5. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    6. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
    7. Velasco, Andres, 1996. "Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1023-1035, April.
    8. Woodford, Michael, 1987. "Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper Serie B 418, University of Bonn, Germany.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Olivier Jeanne, 2000. "Currency Crisis and Unemployment: Sterling in 1931," NBER Chapters,in: Currency Crises, pages 7-43 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Árvai, Zsófia & Vincze, János, 1998. "Valuták sebezhetősége pénzügyi válságok a kilencvenes években
      [Vulnerability of currencies financial crises in the nineties]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 509-533.
    4. Jesper Rangvid, 1997. "Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 497-522, September.
    5. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Roger Craine, 2001. "Dollarization: An Irreversible Decision," International Finance 0103003, EconWPA.
    7. Craine, Roger, 2001. "Dollarization: An Irreversible Decision," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt404915zn, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    8. Roger Craine, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regime Credibility, the Agency Cost of Capital and Devaluation," International Finance 9902002, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency crises; self-fulfilling speculation; European Monetary System; Financial Economics; F3; F4;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ucbewp:233613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/debrkus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.