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Multiple Equilibria and Persistence in Aggregate Fluctuations

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  • Steven N. Durlauf

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of incomplete markets and strong complementarities on the time series properties of aggregate activity. We consider an economy which consists of a large number of industries whose production functions both are nonconvex and exhibit localized technological complementarities. The productivity of each industry at t is determined by the production decisions of technologically similar industries at t - 1. No markets exist to coordinate production decisions. This feature implies that aggregate output dynamics for the model are quite different from those predicted by the associated Arrow-Debreu economy. First, multiple stochastic equilibria exist in aggregate activity. These equilibria are distinguished by differences in the mean and the variance of output. Second, output movements are persistent as aggregate productivity shocks indefinitely affect real activity by shifting the economy across equilibria. As a result, the model can exhibit periods of boom and depression.

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  • Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Multiple Equilibria and Persistence in Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3629
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    2. Cooper, Russell W. & Johri, Alok, 1997. "Dynamic complementarities: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-119, September.
    3. Juan Ruiz, 2003. "Another Perspective on Planned obsolescence: is there really too much Innovation?," Industrial Organization 0302001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Azomahou, Theophile & Mishra, Tapas, 2009. "Stochastic environmental effects, demographic variation, and economic growth," MERIT Working Papers 2009-016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-347, March.
    6. Denis Phan & Stephane Pajot & Jean-Pierre Nadal, 2003. "The Monopolist's Market with Discrete Choices and Network Externality Revisited: Small-Worlds, Phase Transition and Avalanches in an ACE Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 150, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Steven N. Durlauf, 1996. "Statistical Mechanics Approaches to Socioeconomic Behavior," NBER Technical Working Papers 0203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    9. Jonard, N. & Yfldizoglu, M., 1998. "Technological diversity in an evolutionary industry model with localized learning and network externalities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 35-53, March.
    10. Ellis, Christopher J., 1998. "Multiple Equilibria and Rules of Thumb," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 27-54, January.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
    12. Patrick Artus, 1993. "Défauts de coordination des activités. Principes et exemples," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(3), pages 551-568.
    13. Cowan, Robin & Jonard, Nicolas, 2004. "Network structure and the diffusion of knowledge," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1557-1575, June.
    14. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006. "Importance of positive feedbacks and overconfidence in a self-fulfilling Ising model of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(2), pages 704-726.
    15. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Protection against major catastrophes: An economic perspective," HWWI Research Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    16. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 78-93, February.
    17. Startz, Richard, 1998. "Growth States and Shocks," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 203-215, September.
    18. Emanuela Randon, "undated". "Multiple Equilibria with Externalities," Discussion Papers 04/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. Julien, Ludovic A., 2003. "Chômage d’équilibre, équilibres multiples et défauts de coordination," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 523-562, Décembre.
    20. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "A Framework for Studying Economic Interactions (with applications to corruption and business cycles)," Game Theory and Information 9809006, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 1998.
    21. John S. Earle & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2006. "Complementarity and Custom in Contract Violation," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 06-129, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    22. Katarzyna Ostasiewicz & Michal H. Tyc & Piotr Goliczewski & Piotr Magnuszewski & Andrzej Radosz & Jan Sendzimir, 2006. "Integrating economic and psychological insights in binary choice models with social interactions," Papers physics/0609170, arXiv.org.
    23. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    24. Zhang, Qinghua, 2007. "A micro-foundation of local business cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 568-601, September.

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