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Coordinating Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

    (University of Pennsylvania - Wharton)

  • Edouard Schaal

    (New York University)

Abstract

We develop a quantitative theory of business cycles with coordination failures. Because of a standard aggregate demand externality, firms want to coordinate production. The presence of a non-convex capacity decision generates multiple equilibria under complete information. We use a global game approach to show that, under incomplete information, the multiplicity of equilibria disappears to give rise to a unique equilibrium with two stable steady states. The economy exhibits coordination traps: after a negative shock of sufficient size or duration, coordination on the good steady state is harder to achieve, leading to quasi-permanent recessions. In our calibration, the coordination channel improves on the neoclassical growth model in terms of business cycle asymmetries and skewness. The model also accounts for features of the 2007-2009 recession and its aftermath. Government spending is harmful in general as the coordination problem magnifies the crowding out. It can, however, increase welfare -- without nominal rigidities -- when the economy is about to transition to the bad steady state. Simple subsidies implement the efficient allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel & Edouard Schaal, 2015. "Coordinating Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 178, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:178
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Mathevet, Laurent & Steiner, Jakub, 2013. "Tractable dynamic global games and applications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2583-2619.
    5. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Machado, Caio, 2013. "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies," MPRA Paper 48895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning, Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 711-756, May.
    7. Hall, George J., 2000. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: A study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 681-716, June.
    8. Morand, Olivier F. & Reffett, Kevin L., 2003. "Existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in nonoptimal unbounded infinite horizon economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1351-1373, September.
    9. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    10. Coleman, Wilbur II, 2000. "Uniqueness of an Equilibrium in Infinite-Horizon Economies Subject to Taxes and Externalities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 71-78, November.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Coordinating Business Cycles
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2015-08-07 18:25:42

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Federico Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti & Yang Yu, 2018. "Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jan Eeckhout & Ilse Lindenlaub, 2019. "Unemployment Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 175-234, October.
    4. Muellbauer, John, 2016. "Macroeconomics and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 11588, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Sushant Acharya & Julien Bengui & Keshav Dogra & Shu Lin Wee, 2017. "Slow recoveries and unemployment traps: monetary policy in a time of hysteresis," Staff Reports 831, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Aug 2018.
    6. Vito Gala & Hongxun Ruan & Joao Gomes, 2018. "The Decline in Corporate Investment," 2018 Meeting Papers 269, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. George-Marios Angeletos, 2018. "Frictional Coordination," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.
    8. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2017. "Uncertainty Traps," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1641-1692.
    9. Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2017. "International Medium of Exchange: Privilege and Duty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 934, Boston College Department of Economics.
    10. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    11. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Szkup, Michal, 0. "Multiplier effect and comparative statics in global games of regime change," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    13. George-Marios Angeletos, 2017. "Frictional Coordination," NBER Working Papers 24178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Darmouni, Olivier & Sutherland, Andrew, 2018. "Learning about Competitors: Evidence from SME Lending," MPRA Paper 93668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sushant Acharya & Julien Bengui & Keshav Dogra & Shu Lin Wee, 2016. "Escaping Unemployment Traps," Liberty Street Economics 20161116, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2017. "Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro," NBER Working Papers 23379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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