IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Macroeconomics and Consumption

Listed author(s):
  • John Muellbauer

The failure of the ubiquitous New Keynesian "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium" (NK-DSGE) models to capture interactions of finance and the real economy is widely-recognized since the 2008-9 financial crisis. NK-DSGE models exclude money, debt and asset prices and, importantly, ignore changing credit markets. These problems stem from assuming unrealistic micro-foundations for household behaviour, and that aggregate behaviour mimics a fully-informed representative agent (both assumptions are embodied in the underlying rational expectations permanent income' hypothesis (REPIH). This survey critiques the NK-DSGE models and its integral REPIH model, and discusses alternative post-crisis general equilibrium models which do incorporate debt and allow crises to occur. But neither model type can be directly applied to policy-making. The survey reviews misspecifications in standard non-DSGE macro-models used by central banks (e.g. the Fed.'s FRB-US), and related co-integration literature linking consumption with household portfolios. These too omit most of the 'financial accelerator', ignoring credit shifts and crucially, aggregating liquid, illiquid assets, debt and housing into a single 'net worth' construct. The survey's second focus is to improve non-DSGE models for policy using the Latent Interactive Variable Equation System (LIVES) approach, in which aggregate consumption is jointly modelled with the main elements of household balance sheets, extracting credit conditions as a latent variable. Empirical work on aggregate data is surveyed revealing the important role of debt and financial assets and the time and context-dependent role of housing collateral. Rather than 'one-size-fits-all' monetary and macro-prudential policy, institutional differences between countries then imply major differences for monetary policy transmission and policy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/papers/14858/811.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number Paper 811.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 02 Nov 2016
Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:paper-811
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ

Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window

  1. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "What Drives Personal Consumption?: The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, 05.
  3. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving," Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Duca, John & Muellbauer, John, 2013. "Tobin LIVES: Integrating evolving credit market architecture into flow of funds based macro-models," Working Paper Series 1581, European Central Bank.
  5. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. John Muellbauer & Pierre St-Amant & David Williams, 2015. "Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?," Staff Working Papers 15-40, Bank of Canada.
  7. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
  8. Arrondel, Luc & Bartiloro, Laura & Fessler, Pirmin & Lindner, Peter & Mathä, Thomas Y. & Rampazzi, Cristiana & Savignac, Frédérique & Schmidt, Tobias & Schürz, Martin & Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "How do households allocate their assets? Stylised facts from the Eurosystem household finance and consumption survey," Working Paper Series 1722, European Central Bank.
  9. David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2012. "Model Discovery and Trygve Haavelmo's Legacy," Economics Series Working Papers 598, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
  11. Daniel Cooper & Karen Dynan, 2016. "Wealth Effects And Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 34-55, 02.
  12. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 240-240, April.
  13. Gianluca Violante & Benjamin Moll & Greg Kaplan, 2015. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," 2015 Meeting Papers 1507, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
  15. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
  16. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
  17. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future," SERC Discussion Papers 0049, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  18. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
  19. Kaplan, Greg & Moll, Benjamin & Violante, Giovanni L., 2016. "Monetary policy according to HANK," Working Paper Series 1899, European Central Bank.
  20. Geiger, Felix & Muellbauer, John & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.
  21. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
  22. Jerry A. Hausman, 1979. "Individual Discount Rates and the Purchase and Utilization of Energy-Using Durables," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 33-54, Spring.
  23. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Adair Turner, 2015. "Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit, and Fixing Global Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10546.
  25. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and Without Liquidity Constraints (Expanded Version)," NBER Working Papers 8387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
  27. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
  28. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4993, CESifo Group Munich.
  29. Serdar Ozkan & Kurt Mitman & Fatih Karahan & Aaron Hedlund, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Heterogeneity and the Housing Channel," 2016 Meeting Papers 663, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  30. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  31. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226081946 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  33. Cloyne, James & Thomas, Ryland & Tuckett, Alex & Wills, Samuel, 2015. "A sectoral framework for analyzing money, credit and unconventional monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 556, Bank of England.
  34. H. S. Houthakker, 1955. "The Pareto Distribution and the Cobb-Douglas Production Function in Activity Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 27-31.
  35. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
  36. Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel & Edouard Schaal, 2015. "Coordinating Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 178, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  37. John V. Duca, 2006. "Making sense of the U.S. housing slowdown," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(nov).
  38. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "Do DSGE Models Have a Future?," Policy Briefs PB16-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  39. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  40. Julia Giese & Henrik Andersen & Oliver Bush & Christian Castro & Marc Farag & Sujit Kapadia, 2014. "The Credit‐To‐Gdp Gap And Complementary Indicators For Macroprudential Policy: Evidence From The Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 25-47, 01.
  41. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
  42. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2016. "Unravelling the New Classical Counter Revolution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 20-35, January.
  43. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
  44. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:paper-811. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monica Birds)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.