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Household decisions, credit markets and the macroeconomy: implications for the design of central bank models

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  • John Muellbauer

Abstract

It is widely acknowledged that the recent generation of DSGE models failed to incorporate many of the liquidity and financial accelerator mechanisms revealed in the global financial crisis that began in 2007. This paper complements the papers presented at the 2009 BIS annual conference focused on the role of banks and other financial institutions by analysing the role of household decisions and their interplay with credit conditions and asset prices in the light of empirical evidence. In DSGE models without financial frictions, asset prices are merely a proxy for income growth expectations and play no separate role. On UK aggregate consumption evidence, section 2 of the paper shows this is strongly contradicted by the data, for all possible discount rates and both for a perfect foresight and an empirical rational expectations approach to measuring income expectations. However, an Ando-Modigliani consumption function generalised to include a role for liquidity, uncertainty, time varying credit conditions, wealth and housing collateral effects, as well as income expectations, explains the data well. Section 3 reports new evidence on the striking rejection on aggregate data of the consumption Euler equation central to all DSGE models. Section 4 shows that UK micro evidence is consistent with the generalised Ando-Modigliani model. Section 5 discusses the limitations of recent DSGE models with financial frictions and housing. Section 6 discusses some business cycle implications of amplification mechanisms and non-linearities operating via households and residential construction. It reconsiders econometric methodology appropriate for designing better evidence-based central bank policy models.

Suggested Citation

  • John Muellbauer, 2010. "Household decisions, credit markets and the macroeconomy: implications for the design of central bank models," BIS Working Papers 306, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Woodford., 2010. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
    2. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
    3. Leni Hunter, 2008. "The relationship between monetary and financial stability," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, June.
    4. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, January.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. What have microfoundations ever done for us?
      by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2012-03-08 02:06:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Luc Aroondel & Frédérique Savignac & Kévin Tracol, 2014. "Wealth and Consumption: French Households in the Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 163-204, September.
    2. Lamarche, Pierre, 2017. "Estimating consumption in the HFCS: Experimental results on the first wave of the HFCS," Statistics Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
    3. Luc Arrondel & Pierre Lamarche & Frédérique Savignac, 2017. "Does Inequality Matter for the Consumption-Wealth Channel? Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6676, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:9:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    household decisions; housing markets; wealth; business cycle models; consumption;

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