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Crise de la theorie et crise de la politique économique : des modèles d'équilibre général stochastique aux modèles de dynamique hors de l'équilibre

  • Jean Luc Gaffard

    (Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques
    Skema Business School)

L’article est dédié à reconsidérer les objectifs de la politique monétaire, mais aussi à redéfinir un policy mix’ dans une économie systématiquement confrontée à des déséquilibres dus à des changements de technologie, de composition de la demande ou de répartition des revenus. Il est motivé par les échecs de politique économique révélés par la crise. Une évaluation critique des modèles d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique, qui constituent le fondement théorique des politiques mises en oeuvre par les banques centrales retenant comme seul objectif le taux d’inflation, est le point de départ pour reconsidérer la nature des fluctuations et produire des arguments en faveur d’une approche ‘hors de l’équilibre’. Cette approche met l’accent sur les distorsions de la structure productive induites par n’importe quel changement structurel et montre pourquoi et comment l’incohérence temporelle entre la construction et l’utilisation de la capacité productive a une contrepartie monétaire et financière qui peut engendrer une instabilité globale. Elle appelle une révision des objectifs de la politique monétaire et un nouveau policy mix.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2012-10.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1210
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