IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v46y2014icp271-305.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal monetary policy rules, financial amplification, and uncertain business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Fendoğlu, Salih

Abstract

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in the presence of ‘uncertainty’, time-variation in cross-sectional dispersion of firms׳ productive performance. Using a model with financial market imperfections, the results suggest that (i) optimal policy is to dampen the strength of financial amplification by responding to uncertainty (at the expense of creating mild degree of fluctuations in inflation). (ii) Higher uncertainty makes the welfare-maximizing planner more willing to relax financial constraints. (iii) Credit spreads are a good proxy for uncertainty. Hence, a non-negligible response to credit spreads – together with a strong anti-inflationary policy stance – achieves the highest aggregate welfare possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Fendoğlu, Salih, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy rules, financial amplification, and uncertain business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 271-305.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:271-305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.06.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188914001468
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.06.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    2. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1999. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1671-1745, Elsevier.
    3. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. David M. Arseneau & Sanjay K. Chugh, 2012. "Tax Smoothing in Frictional Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 926-985.
    6. Dedola, Luca & Karadi, Peter & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2013. "Global implications of national unconventional policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 66-85.
    7. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    8. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2049-2103.
    9. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 12402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    12. Hirakata, Naohisa & Sudo, Nao & Ueda, Kozo, 2011. "Do banking shocks matter for the U.S. economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2042-2063.
    13. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
    14. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
    15. Raphael Espinoza & Fabio Fornari & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "The Role of Financial Variables in predicting economic activity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 15-46, January.
    16. Rogerson, Richard & Wallenius, Johanna, 2009. "Micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2277-2292, November.
    17. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    18. Monacelli, Tommas & Faia, Ester, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4880, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    20. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    21. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    22. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    23. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
    25. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajšek, 2004. "The magnitude and cyclical behavior of financial market frictions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Chris Woolston, 2014. "Rice," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7524), pages 49-49, October.
    27. Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2009. "Financial shocks and the US business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 596-604, May.
    28. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    29. Rüdiger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2011. "Uncertainty Business Cycles - Really?," NBER Working Papers 16862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367, Elsevier.
    31. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2008. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 45-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    33. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    34. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    35. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    36. Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284, Elsevier.
    37. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2010. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 13, pages 653-722, Elsevier.
    38. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2013. "Capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-324.
    39. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    40. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    41. Ali Dib, 2010. "Banks, Credit Market Frictions, and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 10-24, Bank of Canada.
    42. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    43. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
    44. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
    45. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    46. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Credit Supply Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 195-232, June.
    47. Dupor, Bill, 2002. "Comment on: Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 99-106, January.
    48. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
    49. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Queralto, Albert, 2012. "Financial crises, bank risk exposure and government financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 17-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roos, Michael W. M., 2015. "The macroeconomics of radical uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 592, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2018. "US inflation and inflation uncertainty over 200 years," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 141-159, August.
    3. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    4. Ahmet Aysan & Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc, 2014. "Managing short-term capital flows in new central banking: unconventional monetary policy framework in Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 45-69, June.
    5. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs," IMF Working Papers 2014/128, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2015. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 383-410, March.
    7. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    8. Grimme, Christian, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," MPRA Paper 79852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mahir Binici & Hasan Erol & A. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2013. "Interest Rate Corridor : A New Macroprudential Tool?," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1320, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2018. "How costly is a misspecified credit channel DSGE model in monetary policymaking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 484-505.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Brand, Thomas & Isoré, Marlène & Tripier, Fabien, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and firm creation: Search and monitoring in the credit market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 19-53.
    4. Josef Hollmayr & Michael Kuehl, 2016. "Imperfect Information about Financial Frictions and Consequences for the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 179-207, October.
    5. Ahmet Aysan & Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc, 2014. "Managing short-term capital flows in new central banking: unconventional monetary policy framework in Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 45-69, June.
    6. Balke, Nathan S. & Martínez-García, Enrique & Zeng, Zheng, 2021. "In no uncertain terms: The effect of uncertainty on credit frictions and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Tayler, William & Zilberman, Roy, 2014. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Role of Monetary Policy," Dynare Working Papers 37, CEPREMAP.
    8. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation, credit spreads and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 144-158.
    9. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Carrillo, J.A. & Poilly, C., 2010. "Investigating the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate under financial instability," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    11. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2016. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 30-65.
    12. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "News and financial intermediation in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations," MPRA Paper 38986, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2012.
    14. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    15. Hansen, James, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy with capital and a financial accelerator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 84-102.
    16. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 255, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Silvestrini, Andrea & Zaghini, Andrea, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: From theory to estimation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 915-929.
    18. Lewis, Vivien & Roth, Markus, 2018. "Interest rate rules under financial dominance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 70-88.
    19. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:271-305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.