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Uncertainty Shocks and Firm Creation: Search and Monitoring in the Credit Market

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  • Thomas Brand
  • Marlène Isoré
  • Fabien Tripier

Abstract

We develop a business cycle model where endogenous firm creation stems from two credit market frictions. First, entrepreneurs search for a lending relationship with a bank. Second, an optimal debt contract with monitoring is implemented. We analyze the interplay between both frictions, and embed it into an otherwise standard business cycle model, which we estimate with Bayesian techniques. We find that uncertainty shocks are a prime contributor to business cycle fluctuations in the US, not only for macro-financial aggregates but also for firm creation. Moreover, we point out that the credit search friction dampens the financial accelerator mechanism because default may imply the end of the lending relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Brand & Marlène Isoré & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks and Firm Creation: Search and Monitoring in the Credit Market," Working Papers 2018-19, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-19
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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenza Rossi, 2018. "The Overshooting of Firms Destruction, Banks and Productivity Shocks," DEM Working Papers Series 147, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Financial frictions; Search and matching; Business cycle; Firm creation; Firm dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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