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Uncertainty before and during COVID‐19: A survey

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  • Efrem Castelnuovo

Abstract

This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the relationship between domestic (i.e., country‐specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and offers ten main takeaways. The second part surveys contributions to the fast‐growing strand of the literature that focuses on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty spillovers and global uncertainty. The last part presents contributions on the role played by uncertainty during the COVID‐19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Uncertainty before and during COVID‐19: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 821-864, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:37:y:2023:i:3:p:821-864
    DOI: 10.1111/joes.12515
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2024. "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin, 2024. "Uncertainty spill-overs: When policy and financial realms overlap," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Grebe, Moritz & Kandemir, Sinem & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German business cycle," IMFS Working Paper Series 184, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Konstantina Manou & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2025. "Does uncertainty matter for household consumption? A mean and a two tails approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(4), pages 909-941, December.
    5. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarcic, Crt, 2023. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro area," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Bayer, Ya'akov M. & Shapir, Offer Moshe & Shapir-Tidhar, Michal H. & Shtudiner, Zeev, 2024. "Navigating the financial fog: The impact of pandemic priming on economic decisions and future valuations," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    8. Benner, Niklas & Blagov, Boris & Dirks, Maximilian W., 2025. "Measuring political instability at a high frequency," Ruhr Economic Papers 1186, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Yugang He, 2023. "Unraveling the COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impact on South Korea’s Macroeconomy: Unearthing Novel Transmission Channels within the Energy Sector and Production Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-10, April.
    10. Moritz Grebe & Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202314, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Matteo Cacciatore & Daniela Hauser & Stefano Gnocchi, 2023. "Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 31954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2026. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation: The role of credibility and expectation anchoring," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    14. Kikuchi, Junichi & Nagao, Ryoya & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki, 2023. "Expenditure responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Antonio Chirumbolo & Antonino Callea & Flavio Urbini, 2022. "Living in Liquid Times: The Relationships among Job Insecurity, Life Uncertainty, and Psychosocial Well-Being," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-20, November.
    16. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhang, Zhongqingyang & Mao, Weifang, 2022. "Time-frequency transmission mechanism of EPU, investor sentiment and financial assets: A multiscale TVP-VAR connectedness analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2025. "The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Arne Gieseck, 2025. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(6), pages 2829-2872, June.
    19. Ryan, Michael & Holmes, Mark J., 2025. "The effect of uncertainty on output: Instruments, identification, and the role of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Cross, Jamie L. & Hoogerheide, Lennart & Labonne, Paul & van Dijk, Herman K., 2024. "Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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