IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/wp-2016-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis

Author

Abstract

Using an annual panel of U.S. states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real gross domestic product, productivity and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.

Suggested Citation

  • François Gourio & Todd Messer & Michael Siemer, 2016. "Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis," Working Paper Series WP-2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2016-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/working-papers/2016/wp2016-01-pdf.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    2. Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2012. "Slow convergence in economies with firm heterogeneity," Working Papers 696, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Benjamin Pugsley & Aysegul Sahin & Fatih Karahan, 2015. "Understanding the 30 year Decline in Business Dynamism: a General Equilibrium Approach," 2015 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    5. Michael Siemer, 2014. "Firm Entry and Employment Dynamics in the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Todd Messer & Michael Siemer & Francois Gourio, 2016. "A Missing Generation of Firms? Aggregate Effects of the Decline in New Business Formation," 2016 Meeting Papers 752, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Konon, Alexander & Fritsch, Michael & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2018. "Business cycles and start-ups across industries: An empirical analysis of German regions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 742-761.
    3. Thorsten Drautzburg, 2016. "Just How Important Are New Businesses?," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 1(4), pages 1-7, October.
    4. Dudley Cooke & Tatiana Damjanovic, 2020. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Model of Firm Entry with Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 74-96, January.
    5. Alexander Konon & Michael Fritsch & Alexander Kritikos, 2017. "Business Cycles and Start-ups across Industries: an Empirical Analysis for Germany," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Stelios Giannoulakis, 2021. "Uncertainty, firm entry, and investment dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(5), pages 623-642, November.
    7. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2020. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2473-2502, November.
    8. Gomis, Roger. & Khatiwada, Sameer., 2016. "Firm dynamics and business cycle what doesn't kill you makes you stronger?," ILO Working Papers 994909323402676, International Labour Organization.
    9. Priit Jeenas, 2023. "Firm balance sheet liquidity, monetary policy shocks, and investment dynamics," Economics Working Papers 1872, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Sedláček, Petr, 2020. "Lost generations of firms and aggregate labor market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 16-31.
    11. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2020. "Systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Julian Neira & Rish Singhania, 2022. "The role of corporate taxes in the decline of the startup rate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1277-1295, July.
    13. Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante & Alessandro Gavazza, 2014. "What Shifts the Beveridge Curve? Recruitment Effort and Financial Shocks," 2014 Meeting Papers 1014, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Andrea Colciago & Marco Membretti, 2024. "Barriers to Entry and the Labor Market," DEM Working Papers Series 222, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Andrea Colciago & Marco Membretti, 2024. "Barriers to Entry and the Labor Market," Working Papers 813, DNB.
    16. Beiler, Hendrik, 2017. "Do you dare? The effect of economic conditions on entrepreneurship among college graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 64-74.
    17. Hülsewig, Oliver & Rottmann, Horst, 2023. "Unemployment in the euro area and unconventional monetary policy surprises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/21q7rlmakq8ca9c6o2imhini9d is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Juan Passadore, 2017. "Are State- and Time-Dependent Models Really Different?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 379-457.
    20. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Senni, Chiara Colesanti & von Jagow, Adrian, 2023. "Water risks for hydroelectricity generation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119256, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Firms entry; firm dynamics; Gross Domestic Product; macroeconomics; productivity; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2016-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.