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Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis

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Listed:
  • Francois Gourio
  • Todd Messer
  • Michael Siemer

Abstract

Using an annual panel of US states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real GDP, productivity, and population. This result is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.

Suggested Citation

  • Francois Gourio & Todd Messer & Michael Siemer, 2016. "Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-043, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-43
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.043
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2016/files/2016043pap.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    2. Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Paper series 27_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2012. "Slow convergence in economies with firm heterogeneity," Working Papers 696, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Benjamin Pugsley & Aysegul Sahin & Fatih Karahan, 2015. "Understanding the 30 year Decline in Business Dynamism: a General Equilibrium Approach," 2015 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Michael Siemer, 2014. "Firm Entry and Employment Dynamics in the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Business dynamics; Employment; Firm entry; Missing generation; New business formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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