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Temporal disaggregation of business dynamics: New evidence for U.S. economy

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  • Rossi, Lorenza
  • Zanetti Chini, Emilio

Abstract

We provide new disaggregated data and stylized facts on firm dynamics of the U.S economy at establishment level by using a state-space method to transform Census yearly data of entry and exit from 1977 to 2013 into quarterly frequency. We select the most significant determinants of these variables by matching Census data with a new database by Federal Reserve Bank. These determinants are extrapolated by using an unobserved factor model whose loadings are estimated via Principal Component Analysis. Alternative sources and their data are also investigated and discussed. We find that (i) Entry is pro-cyclical, coincident and symmetric; (ii) Exit is lagging with a maximum positive correlation with RGDP at lag 5 and asymmetric along the business cycle; (iii) the standard macroeconometric models estimated on our disaggregated series support the recent theoretical literature.

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  • Rossi, Lorenza & Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2021. "Temporal disaggregation of business dynamics: New evidence for U.S. economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s0164070421000422
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103337
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; Entry and Exit; Factor models; Overshooting; Variable selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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