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The extensive margin and US aggregate fluctuations: A quantitative assessment

Author

Listed:
  • M. Casares

    (UPNA - Universidad Pública de Navarra [Espagne] = Public University of Navarra)

  • H. Khan

    (University of Ottawa [Ottawa])

  • Jean-Christophe Poutineau

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We report empirical evidence indicating that US net business formation has recently turned more volatile, procyclical and persistent. To study these stylized facts, we estimate a DSGE model with endogenous entry and exit. Business units feature heterogeneous productivity and they shut down if the present value of expected future dividends falls below the current liquidation value. The model provides a better fit than a constant exit rate model with the fluctuations of US business formation. The introduction of the extensive margin amplifies the effects of technology and risk-premium shocks, and reduces the procyclicality of firm-level production. The main sources of variability of the US aggregate fluctuations during the Great Recession are countercyclical technology shocks, persistent adverse risk-premium shocks, and expansionary monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Casares & H. Khan & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2020. "The extensive margin and US aggregate fluctuations: A quantitative assessment," Post-Print hal-03004552, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03004552
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103997
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03004552v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Chafwehé, Boris & Colciago, Andrea & Priftis, Romanos, 2025. "Reallocation, productivity, and monetary policy in an energy crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Ascari, Guido & Fasani, Stefano & Grazzini, Jakob & Rossi, Lorenza, 2023. "Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 48-63.
    3. Hauptmann, Andreas & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg & Schwanebeck, Benjamin, 2024. "Plant-level adjustments to imports and exports at the extensive margin," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Bianca Barbaro & Giorgio Massari & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Who killed business dynamism in the U.S.?," Working Papers 494, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2022.
    5. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    6. Antonova, Anastasiia & Matvieiev, Mykhailo, 2025. "News and firm entry: The role of the waiting option," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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