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Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits

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  • Anthony Savagar

    (University of Kent)

Abstract

I show that sluggish variation in firm entry over the business cycle can account for significant variation in measured TFP through profit and markup channels. I develop a model of dynamic firm entry, oligopolistic competition and returns to scale in order to decompose TFP fluctuations into technical change, economic profit and markup fluctuations. I show that economic profits cause short-run upward bias in measured TFP, but this subsides to upward bias from endogenous markups as firm entry adjusts. I analyze dynamics analytically through a nonparametric DGE model that allows for a perfect com-petition equilibrium such that there are no biases in measured TFP. Given market power, simulations show that measured TFP is 40%higher than technology in the short-run, due solely to profits, and 20% higher in the long-run due solely to markups. The speed of firm adjustment (‘business dynamism’) will determine importance of each bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Savagar, 2019. "Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits," 2019 Meeting Papers 819, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:819
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewis, Vivien, 2009. "Business Cycle Evidence On Firm Entry," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 605-624, November.
    2. Federico Etro & Andrea Colciago, 2010. "Endogenous Market Structures and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1201-1233, December.
    3. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout, 2017. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Working Papers 23687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jose Maria Da-Rocha & Marina Mendes Tavares & Diego Restuccia, 2014. "Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Endogenous Establishment-Level Productivity," Working Papers tecipa-523, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    5. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    6. Gauti Eggertsson & Jacob Robbins, 2018. "Kaldor and Piketty's Facts: the Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States," 2018 Meeting Papers 77, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Devereux, Michael B. & Head, Allen C. & Lapham, Beverly J., 1996. "Aggregate fluctuations with increasing returns to specialization and scale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 627-656, April.
    8. Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2012. "Firm entry, markups and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 670-685.
    9. Marta Aloi & Huw Dixon & Anthony Savagar, 2018. "Labor Responses, Regulation and Business Churn in a Small Open Economy," Studies in Economics 1804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    10. Huw Dixon & ANTHONY SAVAGAR, 2017. "The Effect of Firm Entry on Capacity Utilization and Macroeconomic Productivity," 2017 Meeting Papers 1130, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Brito, Paulo B. & Costa, Luís F. & Dixon, Huw, 2013. "Non-smooth dynamics and multiple equilibria in a Cournot–Ramsey model with endogenous markups," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2287-2306.
    12. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2017. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 24007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dos Santos Ferreira, Rodolphe & Dufourt, Frederic, 2006. "Free entry and business cycles under the influence of animal spirits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 311-328, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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