IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/152020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model

Author

Listed:
  • Röhe, Oke
  • Stähler, Nikolai

Abstract

Since the mid-1970s, firm entry rates in the United States have declined significantly. This also holds for other OECD countries over the past years. At the same time, these economies experienced a gradual process of population aging. Applying a tractable life-cycle model with endogenous firm dynamics, we show that falling US firm entry rates can be explained by demographic transition. Specifically, our model simulations suggest that aging can account for up to one third of the observed decrease in US firm entry rates. In addition to the negative effects of a slowdown in working-age population growth on firm entry, our analysis points out that an increase in longevity may also be an important factor contributing to the decline in business dynamism, weighing on both firm entry and exit rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model," Discussion Papers 15/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:152020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/215408/1/1693283522.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-245, September.
    2. François Gourio & Todd Messer & Michael Siemer, 2016. "Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-Level Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 214-218, May.
    3. Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution When Instruments Are Weak," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 797-810, August.
    4. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    5. James Liang & Hui Wang & Edward P. Lazear, 2018. "Demographics and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(S1), pages 140-196.
    6. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    7. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2019. "Monopoly Power and Endogenous Product Variety: Distortions and Remedies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 140-174, October.
    8. Gabriel Y. Weintraub & C. Lanier Benkard & Benjamin Van Roy, 2008. "Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics With Many Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1375-1411, November.
    9. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2017. "Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 322-326, May.
    10. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    11. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Portier, Franck, 2011. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 84-97, March.
    12. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    13. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
    14. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2008. "A dynamic new Keynesian life-cycle model: Societal aging, demographics, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2398-2427, August.
    15. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    16. Timothy Dunne & Shawn D. Klimek & Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu, 2013. "Entry, exit, and the determinants of market structure," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(3), pages 462-487, September.
    17. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 394-425, March.
    18. Kara, Engin & von Thadden, Leopold, 2016. "Interest Rate Effects Of Demographic Changes In A New Keynesian Life-Cycle Framework," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 120-164, January.
    19. Cavallari, Lilia, 2015. "Entry costs and the dynamics of business formation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 312-326.
    20. Jaimovich, Nir & Floetotto, Max, 2008. "Firm dynamics, markup variations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1238-1252, October.
    21. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    22. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    23. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    24. Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Aysegül Sahin, 2019. "Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit," Working Papers 19-21, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    25. Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2012. "Firm entry, markups and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 670-685.
    26. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steven Berry, 2007. "Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples)," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 373-399, June.
    27. Decker, Ryan A. & Haltiwanger, John & Jarmin, Ron S. & Miranda, Javier, 2016. "Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 4-23.
    28. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2014. "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    29. Offick, Sven & Winkler, Roland C., 2019. "Endogenous Firm Entry In An Estimated Model Of The U.S. Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 284-321, January.
    30. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Hernan Moscoso Boedo & Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2012. "Evaluating the effects of entry regulations and firing costs on international income differences," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 143-170, June.
    32. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    33. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
    34. Hugo Hopenhayn & Julian Neira & Rish Singhania, 2018. "From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 25382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Shutao Cao & Mohanad Salameh & Mai Seki & Pierre St-Amant, 2017. "Trends in Firm Entry and New Entrepreneurship in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 43(3), pages 202-220, September.
    36. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    37. Golombek, Rolf & Raknerud, Arvid, 2018. "Exit dynamics of start-up firms: Structural estimation using indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 204-225.
    38. Tian, Can, 2018. "Firm-level entry and exit dynamics over the business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 298-326.
    39. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
    40. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    41. Alon, Titan & Berger, David & Dent, Robert & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Older and slower: The startup deficit’s lasting effects on aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 68-85.
    42. Ouimet, Paige & Zarutskie, Rebecca, 2014. "Who works for startups? The relation between firm age, employee age, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 386-407.
    43. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2020-04-08 17:16:55
    2. Demographics and the Decline in Firm Entry: Lessons from a Life-Cycle Model
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2020-11-27 15:41:16

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "The impact of aging and automation on the macroeconomy and inequality," Discussion Papers 30/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    3. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    5. Casares, Miguel & Khan, Hashmat & Poutineau, Jean-Christophe, 2020. "The extensive margin and US aggregate fluctuations: A quantitative assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Miguel Casares & Hashmat Khan & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2018. "The extensive margin and US aggregate fluctuations: A quantitative assessment," Carleton Economic Papers 18-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2020.
    7. Drautzburg, Thorsten, 2019. "Entrepreneurial tail risk: Implications for employment dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 85-100.
    8. Rossi, Lorenza, 2019. "The overshooting of firms’ destruction, banks and productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 136-155.
    9. Miguel Casares Polo & Hashmat Khan & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2018. "A structural analysis of US entry and exit dynamics," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1801, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    10. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Paul Ho, 2020. "Estimating the Effects of Demographics on Interest Rates: A Robust Bayesian Perspective," Working Paper 20-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Sónia Félix & Chiara Maggi, 2019. "What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?," IMF Working Papers 2019/276, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Savagar, Anthony & Dixon, Huw, 2020. "Firm entry, excess capacity and endogenous productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Zanetti, 2017. "Endogenous Turnover and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 263-279, October.
    15. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2017. "Monetary Neutrality with Sticky Prices and Free Entry," CEPR Discussion Papers 12068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2019. "Entry, Trade, and Exporting over the Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 83-126, December.
    17. Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2012. "Firm entry, markups and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 670-685.
    18. Alon, Titan & Berger, David & Dent, Robert & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Older and slower: The startup deficit’s lasting effects on aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 68-85.
    19. Dudley Cooke & Tatiana Damjanovic, 2020. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Model of Firm Entry with Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 74-96, January.
    20. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life-Cycle model; Population aging; Business dynamism; Firm entry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:152020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.