IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23875.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Older and Slower: The Startup Deficit’s Lasting Effects on Aggregate Productivity Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Titan Alon
  • David Berger
  • Robert Dent
  • Benjamin Pugsley

Abstract

We investigate the link between declining firm entry, aging incumbent firms and sluggish U.S. productivity growth. We provide a dynamic decomposition framework to characterize the contributions to industry productivity growth across the firm age distribution and apply this framework to the newly developed Revenue-enhanced Longitudinal Business Database (ReLBD). Overall, several key findings emerge: (i) the relationship between firm age and productivity growth is downward sloping and convex; (ii) the magnitudes are substantial and significant but fade quickly, with nearly 2/3 of the effect disappearing after five years and nearly the entire effect disappearing after ten; (iii) the higher productivity growth of young firms is driven nearly exclusively by the forces of selection and reallocation. Our results suggest a cumulative drag on aggregate productivity of 3.1% since 1980. Using an instrumental variables strategy we find a consistent pattern across states/MSAs in the U.S. The patterns are broadly consistent with a standard model of firm dynamics with monopolistic competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Titan Alon & David Berger & Robert Dent & Benjamin Pugsley, 2017. "Older and Slower: The Startup Deficit’s Lasting Effects on Aggregate Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 23875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23875
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23875.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc J. Melitz & Sašo Polanec, 2015. "Dynamic Olley-Pakes productivity decomposition with entry and exit," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 362-375, June.
    2. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    4. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Robert Kulick & Javier Miranda, 2016. "High Growth Young Firms: Contribution to Job, Output, and Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges, pages 11-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-581, June.
    6. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2017. "Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 322-326, May.
    7. Benjamin Wild Pugsley & Ay’egul ahin, 2019. "Grown-up Business Cycles," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(3), pages 1102-1147.
    8. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    9. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    10. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 394-425, March.
    11. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2015. "House prices, collateral, and self-employment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 288-306.
    12. Costas Arkolakis & Theodore Papageorgiou & Olga Timoshenko, 2018. "Firm Learning and Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 146-168, January.
    13. Robert C. Dent & Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin, 2016. "The Role of Startups in Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 219-223, May.
    14. Mark Doms & Eric J. Bartelsman, 2000. "Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 569-594, September.
    15. Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Aysegül Sahin, 2019. "Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit," Working Papers 19-21, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    16. Lucia Foster & John C. Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2001. "Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 303-372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Eric Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger & Stefano Scarpetta, 2013. "Cross-Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocation and Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 305-334, February.
    18. Decker, Ryan A. & Haltiwanger, John & Jarmin, Ron S. & Miranda, Javier, 2016. "Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 4-23.
    19. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2014. "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    20. Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2002. "The Longitudinal Business Database," Working Papers 02-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    21. Sara Moreira, 2016. "Firm Dynamics, Persistent Effects of Entry Conditions, and Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 708, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
    23. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    24. Alicia M. Robb & David T. Robinson, 2014. "The Capital Structure Decisions of New Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 153-179, January.
    25. John Haltiwanger & Erik Hurst & Javier Miranda & Antoinette Schoar, 2017. "Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number halt14-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin, 2019. "Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit," NBER Working Papers 25874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alexandra Tsvetkova & Rudiger Ahrend & Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Alexander C. Lembcke & Polina Knutsson & Dylan Jong & Nikolaos Terzidis, 2020. "The spatial dimension of productivity: Connecting the dots across industries, firms and places," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
    3. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2019. "Entry, Trade, and Exporting over the Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 83-126, December.
    4. Sónia Félix & Chiara Maggi, 2019. "What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?," Working Papers w201904, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Herkenhoff, Kyle F. & Ohanian, Lee E. & Prescott, Edward C., 2018. "Tarnishing the golden and empire states: Land-use restrictions and the U.S. economic slowdown," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 89-109.
    6. Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model," Discussion Papers 15/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2017. "Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 322-326, May.
    8. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Joonkyu Choi, 2018. "Entrepreneurial Risk-Taking, Young Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Implications," 2018 Meeting Papers 1018, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Joonkyu Choi & Nathan Goldschlag & John Haltiwanger & J. Daniel Kim, 2019. "Founding Teams and Startup Performance," Working Papers 19-32, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2018. "The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business," NBER Working Papers 24501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Doerr, Sebastian, 2018. "Collateral, Reallocation, and Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Boom," MPRA Paper 106163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Lee,Yoonsoo, 2020. "Long-Term Shifts in Korean Manufacturing and Plant-Level Productivity Dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9279, The World Bank.
    14. Evguenia Bessonova & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "Productivity convergence trends within Russian industries: firm-level evidence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps51, Bank of Russia.
    15. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    16. Alexander Murray, 2018. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S. Productivity Slowdown?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 34, pages 81-109, Spring.
    17. Tessa Conroy & Stephan Weiler, 2019. "Local and social: entrepreneurs, information network effects, and economic growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 681-713, June.
    18. Leland Crane & Ryan Decker, 2019. "Business Dynamics in the National Establishment Time Series (NETS)/Leland Crane, Ryan Decker," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Artz, Georgeanne M. & Eathington, Liesl & Francois, Jasmine & Masinde, Melvin & Orazem, Peter F., 2020. "Churning in Rural and Urban Retail Markets," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800001782, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Francesco Manaresi & Carlo Menon & Pietro Santoleri, 2020. "Supporting innovative entrepreneurship: an evaluation of the Italian "Start-up Act"," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 163, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    22. Giuseppe Albanese & Raffaello Bronzini & Luciano Lavecchia & Giovanni Soggia, 2019. "Regional policies for Italian innovative start-ups," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 511, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Georgeanne M. Artz & Younjun Kim & Peter F. Orazem & Peter J. Han, 2021. "Which Small Towns Attract Start‐Ups and Why? Twenty Years of Evidence from Iowa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 702-720, March.
    24. Tessa Conroy & Steven Deller & Philip Watson, 2021. "Regional income inequality: a link to women-owned businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 189-207, January.
    25. Kehrig, Matthias, 2018. "Comment on “Computerizing industries and routinizing jobs: Explaining trends in aggregate productivity” by Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 22-28.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Decker, Ryan A. & Haltiwanger, John & Jarmin, Ron S. & Miranda, Javier, 2016. "Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 4-23.
    2. Ursel Baumann & Melina Vasardani, 2016. "The slowdown in US productivity growth - what explains it and will it persist?," Working Papers 215, Bank of Greece.
    3. Petr Sedlacek & Benjamin Pugsley & Vincent Sterk, 2017. "The Nature of Firm Growth," 2017 Meeting Papers 196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Gert Bijnens & Jozef Konings, 2020. "Declining business dynamism in Belgium," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1201-1239, April.
    5. Michel Dumont & Chantal Kegels, 2016. "Working Paper 06-16 - Young Firms and Industry Dynamics in Belgium," Working Papers 1606, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    6. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2019. "Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Vincent Sterk & Petr Sedláček & Benjamin Pugsley, 2021. "The Nature of Firm Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 547-579, February.
    8. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    10. Antoine Gervais, 2018. "Multiregional Firms And Region Switching In The U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 955-982, April.
    11. Garnadt, Niklas, 2017. "The increasing presence of large firms and its consequences for US startup rates," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168091, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Hyytinen, Ari & Maliranta, Mika, 2013. "Firm lifecycles and evolution of industry productivity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1080-1098.
    13. Lee,Yoonsoo, 2020. "Long-Term Shifts in Korean Manufacturing and Plant-Level Productivity Dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9279, The World Bank.
    14. Evguenia Bessonova & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "Productivity convergence trends within Russian industries: firm-level evidence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps51, Bank of Russia.
    15. J. David Brown & Gustavo A. Crespi & Leonardo Iacovone & Luca Marcolin, 2018. "Decomposing firm-level productivity growth and assessing its determinants: evidence from the Americas," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 1571-1606, December.
    16. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    17. Meri Davlasheridze & Pinar C. Geylani, 2017. "Small Business vulnerability to floods and the effects of disaster loans," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 865-888, December.
    18. Ia Vardishvili, 2020. "Entry Decision, the Option to Delay Entry, and Business Cycles," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    19. Benjamin L. Collier & Andrew F. Haughwout & Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan, 2020. "Firms’ Management of Infrequent Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1329-1359, September.
    20. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John Haltiwanger, 2016. "Reallocation in the Great Recession: Cleansing or Not?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 293-331.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23875. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.