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Grown-up business cycles

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We document two striking facts about U.S. firm dynamics and interpret their significance for employment dynamics. The first is the dramatic decline in firm entry and the second is the gradual shift of employment toward older firms since 1980. We show that despite these trends, the lifecycle dynamics of firms and their business cycle properties have remained virtually unchanged. Consequently, aging is the delayed effect of accumulating startup deficits. Together, the decline in the employment contribution of startups and the shift of employment toward more mature firms contributed to the emergence of jobless recoveries in the U.S. economy.

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  • Pugsley, Benjamin & Sahin, Aysegul, 2014. "Grown-up business cycles," Staff Reports 707, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Sep 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:707
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    Cited by:

    1. Hubert Janicki & Henry Hyatt & Emin Dinlersoz, 2015. "Who Works for Whom? Worker Sorting in a Model of Entrepreneurship with Heterogeneous Labor Markets," 2015 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Benjamin Pugsley & Aysegul Sahin & Fatih Karahan, 2015. "Understanding the 30 year Decline in Business Dynamism: a General Equilibrium Approach," 2015 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Drautzburg, Thorsten, 2016. "Just How Important Are New Businesses?," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 1(4), pages 1-7, Q4.
    4. Javier Miranda & Lars Vilhuber, 2016. "Using Partially Synthetic Microdata to Protect Sensitive Cells in Business Statistics," Working Papers 16-10, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Titan Alon & David Berger & Robert Dent & Benjamin Pugsley, 2017. "Older and Slower: The Startup Deficit’s Lasting Effects on Aggregate Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 23875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Petr Sedláček & Vincent Sterk, 2017. "The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3182-3210, October.
    7. Todd Messer & Michael Siemer & Francois Gourio, 2016. "A Missing Generation of Firms? Aggregate Effects of the Decline in New Business Formation," 2016 Meeting Papers 752, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Carlino, Gerald A. & Drautzburg, Thorsten, 2017. "The Role of Startups for Local Labor Markets," Working Papers 17-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Hyatt, Henry R. & Spletzer, James R., 2016. "The shifting job tenure distribution," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 363-377.
    10. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Robert C. Dent & Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin, 2016. "The Role of Startups in Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 219-223, May.
    12. Garnadt, Niklas, 2017. "The increasing presence of large firms and its consequences for US startup rates," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168091, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Neira, Julian & Singhania, Rish, 2017. "The Role of Corporate Taxes in the Decline of the Startup Rate," MPRA Paper 81662, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm dynamics; employment dynamics; business cycles; entrepreneurship;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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