IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Countercyclical Restructuring and Jobless Recoveries

  • David Berger

    (Yale University)

Registered author(s):

    In the past three recessions, two major features of the business cycle have changed. First, employment now lags output growth, leading to jobless recoveries. Second, average labor productivity (ALP) has become acyclical or even countercyclical. This paper proposes a joint explanation for both facts. I develop a quantitative model in which firms streamline and restructure during recessions. The model captures the idea that firms grow "fat" during booms but then quickly "restructure" during recessions by laying off their unproductive workers. Firms then enter the recovery with a greater ability to meet expanding demand without hiring additional workers. This model explains 55% of the decline in the procyclicality of ALP observed in the data and generates a 4 quarters long jobless recovery after the Great Recession.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2012/paper_1179.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 1179.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1179
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

    Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Costas Arkolakis & Sharat Ganapati & Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2016. "The Extensive Margin of Exporting Products: A Firm-level Analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2028, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    3. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
    4. Thijs van Rens, 2004. "Organizational capital and employment fluctuations," Economics Working Papers 944, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen R. Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Can sectoral reallocation explain the jobless recovery?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 36-39.
    6. Kathryn Koenders & Richard Rogerson, 2005. "Organizational dynamics over the business cycle: a view on jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 555-580.
    7. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    8. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    9. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1992. "Earnings losses of displaced workers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2003. "A closer look at jobless recoveries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-73.
    12. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 19 pages.
    13. Jordi Galí & Thijs van Rens, 2014. "The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labor Productivity," Working Papers 489, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    14. Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 10-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2006. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," Working Paper Series WP06-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    16. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2010. "Multiple-Product Firms and Product Switching," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 70-97, March.
    17. Marcelo L. Veracierto, 2002. "Plant-Level Irreversible Investment and Equilibrium Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-197, March.
    18. Thomas Philippon, 2004. "Corporate Governance Over the Business Cycle," 2004 Meeting Papers 114, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 2-20.
    20. Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 27_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    21. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    22. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
    23. Dino Palazzo & Gian Luca Clementi, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 1188, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
    25. Shawn Klimek & James Schmitz & Timothy Dunne, 2010. "Does Foreign Competition Spur Productivity? Evidence From Post WWII U.S. Cement Manufacturing," 2010 Meeting Papers 805, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Aubhik Khan & Julia Thomas, 2003. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of (S,s) Policies," NBER Working Papers 10078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Julia K. Thomas & Dino Palazzo & Aubhik Khan & Gian Luca Clementi, 2011. "Selection, Reallocation and the Shape of Aggregate Fluctuations: A General Equilibrium Analysis," 2011 Meeting Papers 1364, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "VIRTUES OF BAD TIMES Interaction Between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 322-344, September.
    29. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Working Papers 2011-009, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    30. Hopenhayn, Hugo & Rogerson, Richard, 1993. "Job Turnover and Policy Evaluation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 915-38, October.
    31. Russell W. Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Jonathan L. Willis, 2003. "Dynamics of labor demand : evidence from plant-level observations and aggregate implications," Research Working Paper RWP 03-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    32. Edward S. Knotek & Stephen J. Terry, 2008. "Alternative methods of solving state-dependent pricing models," Research Working Paper RWP 08-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    33. Philippe Aghion & Jeremy C. Stein, 2008. "Growth versus Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What It Wants," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1025-1058, 06.
    34. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," Working Papers 10-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    35. Allen Sinai, 2010. "The Business Cycle in a Changing Economy: Conceptualization, Measurement, Dating," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 25-29, May.
    36. Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1992. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias," NBER Working Papers 4202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.