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Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics

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  • McKay, Alisdair

Abstract

Long-term earnings losses for displaced workers are large and counter-cyclical. Similarly, the skewness of earnings growth rates is strongly pro-cyclical. This paper presents an incomplete markets business cycle model in which idiosyncratic risk varies over time in accordance with these empirical findings. These dynamics of idiosyncratic risk give rise to a cyclical precautionary savings motive that substantially raises the volatility of aggregate consumption growth. According to the model, idiosyncratic risk spiked during the Great Recession, leading to a substantial decline in aggregate consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • McKay, Alisdair, 2017. "Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:88:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.05.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Spyridon Lazarakis & Jim Malley, 2019. "Cyclical income risk in Great Britain," CESifo Working Paper Series 7594, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. repec:eee:pubeco:v:169:y:2019:i:c:p:160-171 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    4. Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2018. "Pareto Extrapolation: Bridging Theoretical and Quantitative Models of Wealth Inequality," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt90n2h2bb, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    5. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:6:p:1081-1111 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/696046 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:red:issued:17-149 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant & Alexis Akira Toda, 2019. "Pareto Extrapolation: Bridging Theoretical and Quantitative Models of Wealth Inequality," 2019 Meeting Papers 152, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. repec:eee:moneco:v:104:y:2019:i:c:p:101-113 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. SeHyoun Ahn & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Thomas Winberry & Christian Wolf, 2018. "When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-75.
    11. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli & Jutong Pan, 2019. "Markov-Chain Approximations for Life-Cycle Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 183-201, October.
    12. Toda, Alexis Akira, 2019. "Wealth distribution with random discount factors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 101-113.
    13. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Moyen, Stephane & Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Labor market reforms, precautionary savings, and global imbalances," Discussion Papers 13/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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