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Precautionary Saving and Aggregate Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Matheron

    (Banque de France)

  • Juan Rubio-Ramirez

    (Duke University)

  • Edouard Challe

    (Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (Paris School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper introduces incomplete insurance against idioyncratic labour income risk into an otherwise standard New Keynesian business cycle model with involuntary unemployment. Following an adverse monetary policy shock that lowers aggregate demand, job creation is discouraged and unemployment risk persistently rises. Imperfectly insured households rationally respond to the rise in idiosyncratic income uncertainty by increasing precautionary saving, thereby cutting consumption and depleting aggregate demand even further; this in turn magnifies the initial labour market contraction and further raises unemployment risk. A Bayesian estimation of the model is used to assess the contribution of time-varying precautionary saving to movements in aggregate consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Matheron & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2014. "Precautionary Saving and Aggregate Demand," 2014 Meeting Papers 1021, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:1021
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    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l’économie keynésienne," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 173-186.
    2. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the zero lower bound in an estimated regime-switching DSGE model," Working Paper 2016/3, Norges Bank.
    3. repec:oup:restud:v:85:y:2018:i:1:p:119-156. is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gianluca Violante & Benjamin Moll & Greg Kaplan, 2015. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," 2015 Meeting Papers 1507, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    6. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2018. "Reconciling Hayek’s and Keynes’ Views of Recessions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 119-156.
    7. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu & Ragot, Xavier, 2017. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households," CEPR Discussion Papers 11814, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Serdar Ozkan & Kurt Mitman & Fatih Karahan & Aaron Hedlund, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Heterogeneity and the Housing Channel," 2016 Meeting Papers 663, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Rabitsch, Katrin & Schoder, Christian, 2016. "Buffer stock savings in a New-Keynesian business cycle model," FinMaP-Working Papers 64, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    10. Wouter Den Haan & Pontus Rendahl & Markus Riegler, 2015. "Unemployment (Fears) and Deflationary Spirals," Discussion Papers 1521, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    11. Fabrizio Perri & Jonathan Heathcote, 2011. "Wealth and Volatility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1065, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Manuel, Lancastre, 2016. "Age Milestones and Low Interest Rates, an Analytic Approach," MPRA Paper 85046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ravn, Morten O & Sterk, Vincent, 2016. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations with HANK & SAM: An Analytical Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gornemann, Nils & Kuester, Keith & Nakajima, Makoto, 2016. "Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. George-Marios Angeletos, 2017. "Frictional Coordination," NBER Working Papers 24178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Midrigan, Virgiliu & Philippon, Thomas, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 8381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Lancastre, Manuel, 2016. "Inequality and Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 85047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Xavier Ragot & Francois Le Grand, 2017. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Aggregate Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 969, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Rendahl, Pontus & Riegler, Markus, 2015. "Unemployment (fears) and deflationary spirals," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86288, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. repec:eee:moneco:v:88:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 1624, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    22. Andrea Caggese & Ander Pérez Orive, 2015. "The Interaction between Household and Firm Dynamics and the Amplification of Financial Shocks," Working Papers 866, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    23. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2017. "The New Keynesian Cross: Understanding Monetary Policy with Hand-to-Mouth Households," CEPR Discussion Papers 11989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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