Reconciling Hayek's and Keynes' views of recessions
Recessions often happen after periods of rapid accumulation of houses, consumer durables and business capital. This observation has led some economists, most notably Friedrich Hayek, to conclude that recessions mainly reflect periods of needed liquidation resulting from past over-investment. According to the main proponents of this view, government spending should not be used to mitigate such a liquidation process, as doing so would simply result in a needed adjustment being postponed. In contrast, ever since the work of Keynes, many economists have viewed recessions as periods of deficient demand that should be countered by activist fiscal policy. In this paper we reexamine the liquidation perspective of recessions in a setup where prices are flexible but where not all trades are coordinated by centralized markets. We show why and how liquidations can produce periods where the economy functions particularly inefficiently, with many socially desirable trades between individuals remaining unexploited when the economy inherits too many capital goods. In this sense, our model illustrates how liquidations can cause recessions characterized by deficient aggregate demand and accordingly suggests that Keynes' and Hayek's views of recessions may be much more closely linked than previously recognized. In our framework, interventions aimed at stimulating aggregate demand face the trade-off emphasized by Hayek whereby current stimulus mainly postpones the adjustment process and therefore prolongs the recessions. However, when examining this trade-off, we find that some stimulative policies may nevertheless remain desirable even if they postpone a recovery.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||May 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shi, Shouyong, 1998.
"Search for a Monetary Propagation Mechanism,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 314-352, August.
- Morten O. Ravn & Vincent Sterk, 2012.
"Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions,"
1501, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Dec 2014.
- Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2002.
"A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis,"
0211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
- Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2004. "A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis," Staff Report 346, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
- V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen McGrattan, 2004.
"Business Cycle Accounting,"
NBER Working Papers
10351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2006. "Business cycle accounting," Staff Report 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- V V Chari & Patrick J Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2003. "Business Cycle Accounting," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000421, UCLA Department of Economics.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Business cycle accounting," Working Papers 625, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick Kehoe & Ellen McGrattan, 2004. "Business Cycle Accounting," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000560, UCLA Department of Economics.
- repec:pri:cepsud:234kaplan is not listed on IDEAS
- Christopher Carroll & Martin Sommer & Jiri Slacalek, 2012.
"Dissecting Saving Dynamics; Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects,"
IMF Working Papers
12/219, International Monetary Fund.
- Carroll, Christopher D. & Slacalek, Jiri & Sommer, Martin, 2012. "Dissecting saving dynamics: Measuring wealth, precautionary, and credit effects," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Carroll, Christopher & Slacalek, Jiri & Sommer, Martin, 2012. "Dissecting saving dynamics: measuring wealth, precautionary and credit effects," Working Paper Series 1474, European Central Bank.
- Christopher Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," Economics Working Paper Archive 602, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2005.
"Money in Search Equilibrium, in Competitive Equilibrium, and in Competitive Search Equilibrium,"
Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 175-202, 01.
- Randall Wright & Guillame Rocheteau, 2003. "Money in Search Equilibrium, in Competitive Equilibrium, and in Competitive Search Equilibrium," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000302, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2003. "Money in Search Equilibrium, in Competitive Equilibrium, and in Competitive Search Equilibrium," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2004. "Money in search equilibrium, in competitive equilibrium, and in competitive search equilibrium," Working Paper 0405, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- P. Diamond, 1980.
"Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium,"
268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001.
"An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2016.
"Precautionary Saving Over the Business Cycle,"
Sciences Po publications
info:hdl:2441/54k1p7hdq38, Sciences Po.
- Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Precautionary Saving Over the Business Cycle," Post-Print halshs-01313771, HAL.
- Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2013. "Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle," PSE Working Papers hal-00843150, HAL.
- Xavier Ragot & Edouard Challe, 2011. "Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle," 2011 Meeting Papers 517, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Farmer, Roger, 2010.
"How the Economy Works: Confidence, Crashes, and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780195397918, December.
- Farmer, Roger E. A., 2014. "How the Economy Works: Confidence, Crashes and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199360307, December.
- Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
- Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013.
"Does expansionary monetary policy cause asset price booms? some historical and empirical evidence,"
Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy),
Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(2), pages 04-52, August.
- Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2014. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.), Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 3, pages 61-116 Central Bank of Chile.
- Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 51-56, May.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9966. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.