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Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence

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  • Michel Bordo
  • John Lando-Lane

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relationship between loose monetary policy, low inflation, and easy bank credit with asset price booms. Using a panel of up to 18 OECD countries from 1920 to 2011 we estimate the impact that loose monetary policy, low inflation, and bank credit has on house, stock and commodity prices. We review the historical narratives on asset price booms and use a deterministic procedure to identify asset price booms for the countries in our sample. We show that “loose” monetary policy – that is having an interest rate below the target rate or having a growth rate of money above the target growth rate – does positively impact asset prices and this correspondence is heightened during periods when asset prices grew quickly and then subsequently suffered a significant correction. This result was robust across multiple asset prices and different specifications and was present even when we controlled for other alternative explanations such as low inflation or “easy” credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Bordo & John Lando-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 710, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:710
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Isabel Schnabel, 2014. "Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives," Working Papers 1411, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 31 Oct 2014.
    2. Aßmuth, Pascal, 2015. "Stock price related financial fragility and growth patterns," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 539, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    3. Whelsy Boungou, 2019. "Negative interest rate, bank profitability and risk-taking," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    5. John B. Taylor, 2014. "Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Slow Recovery: A Ten-Year Perspective," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    6. Gregory Bauer, 2014. "International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums," Staff Working Papers 14-54, Bank of Canada.
    7. de la Horra, Luis P. & de la Fuente, Gabriel & Perote, Javier, 2019. "The drivers of Bitcoin demand: A short and long-run analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 21-34.
    8. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Does monetary policy generate asset price bubbles ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2geqol5jud8, Sciences Po.
    9. Michael D. Bordo, 2014. "The Federal Reserve's Role: Actions Before, During, and After the 2008 Panic the Historical Context of the Great Contraction," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 6, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    10. Benjamin Beckers & Kerstin Bernoth, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Mispricing in Stock Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1605, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-37, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew T. Levin & Mickey D. Levy, 2020. "Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve’s Policy Strategy and Communications," NBER Working Papers 27369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Feldkircher, Martin & Poyntner, Philipp & Schuberth, Helene, 2019. "Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policy on Real and Financial Wealth," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 286, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    14. Giri, Federico & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2019. "Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 42-58.
    15. Beckers, Benjamin & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Mispricing," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Banks: Evolution and Innovation in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 23847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. David le Bris, 2018. "What is a market crash?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 480-505, May.
    18. Pablo Agnese & Jana Hromcová, 2018. "Bubble economics and structural change: the cases of Spain and France compared," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 59-79, January.
    19. Sophia Latsos & Gunther Schnabl, 2021. "Determinants of Japanese Household Saving Behavior in the Low-Interest Rate Environment," CESifo Working Paper Series 8927, CESifo.
    20. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," Sciences Po publications 12/2020, Sciences Po.
    21. Aßmuth, Pascal, 2017. "Stock price related financial fragility and growth patterns," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-108, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    22. de Resende, Charlene C. & Pereira, Adriano C.M. & Cardoso, Rodrigo T.N. & de Magalhães, A.R. Bosco, 2017. "Investigating market efficiency through a forecasting model based on differential equations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 199-212.
    23. Aßmuth, Pascal, 2020. "Stock price related financial fragility and growth patterns," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 14, pages 1-34.
    24. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2018. "A Survey Of The International Evidence And Lessons Learned About Unconventional Monetary Policies: Is A ‘New Normal’ In Our Future?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 1229-1256, December.
    25. John B. Taylor, 2014. "Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy," Economics Working Papers 14107, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

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