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Commodity prices, money and inflation

Listed author(s):
  • Browne, Frank
  • Cronin, David

We argue that long run and dynamic relationships should exist between commodity prices, consumer prices and money. Using a cointegrating VAR framework and US data, our empirical analysis shows equilibrium relationships existing between money, commodity prices and consumer prices, with both commodity and consumer prices proportional to the money supply in the long run. Persistence profiles reveal commodity prices initially overshooting their new equilibrium values in response to a money supply shock. We conclude that money has to be brought into analyses of the relationship between commodity prices and consumer prices.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.

Volume (Year): 62 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 331-345

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:62:y::i:4:p:331-345
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus

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  1. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
  2. Hafer, R.W. & Jones, Garett, 2008. "Dynamic IS curves with and without money: An international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 609-616, June.
  3. Surrey, M J C, 1989. "Money, Commodity Prices and Inflation: Some Simple Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 219-238, August.
  4. Pecchenino, R. A., 1992. "Commodity prices and the CPI: Cointegration, information, and signal extraction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 493-500, March.
  5. Garner, C Alan, 1989. "Commodity Prices: Policy Target or Information Variable? A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 508-514, November.
  6. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1441-1471, July.
  7. Hafer, R.W. & Haslag, Joseph H. & Jones, Garett, 2007. "On money and output: Is money redundant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 945-954, April.
  8. Fred Furlong & Robert Ingenito, 1996. "Commodity prices and inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-47.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
  10. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
  11. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: money, interest rates, and policy stance," Working Paper Series 756, European Central Bank.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  14. Cody, Brian J & Mills, Leonard O, 1991. "The Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 358-365, May.
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