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Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices – A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries

  • Ansgar Belke

    ()

  • Ingo G. Bordon
  • Torben W. Hendricks

This paper examines the interactions between money, consumer prices and commodity prices at a global level from 1970 to 2008. Using aggregated data for major OECD countries and a cointegrating VAR framework, we are able to establish long run and short run relationships among these variables while the process is mainly driven by global liquidity. According to our empirical findings, different price elasticities in commodity and consumer goods markets can explain the recently observed overshooting of commodity over consumer prices. Although the sample period is rather long, recursive tests corroborate that our CVAR fits the data very well.

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File URL: http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_09_102.pdf
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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0102.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0102
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Fred Furlong, 1989. "Commodity prices and inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun16.
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  5. Allan H. Meltzer, 1995. "Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 49-72, Fall.
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  7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  8. Awokuse, Titus O. & Yang, Jian, 2002. "The Informational Role Of Commodity Prices In Formulating Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," Staff Papers 15834, University of Delaware, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
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  16. Klaas Baks & Charles Frederick Kramer, 1999. "Global Liquidity and Asset Prices; Measurement, Implications, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 99/168, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  18. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2008. "Information content of commodity futures prices for monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 274-283, March.
  19. Hua, Ping, 1998. "On Primary Commodity Prices: The Impact of Macroeconomic/Monetary Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 767-790, December.
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  21. Wayne D. Angell, 1992. "Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 12(1), pages 185-192, Spring/Su.
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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