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Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices – A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries

  • Ansgar Belke

    ()

  • Ingo G. Bordon
  • Torben W. Hendricks

This paper examines the interactions between money, consumer prices and commodity prices at a global level from 1970 to 2008. Using aggregated data for major OECD countries and a cointegrating VAR framework, we are able to establish long run and short run relationships among these variables while the process is mainly driven by global liquidity. According to our empirical findings, different price elasticities in commodity and consumer goods markets can explain the recently observed overshooting of commodity over consumer prices. Although the sample period is rather long, recursive tests corroborate that our CVAR fits the data very well.

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File URL: http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_09_102.pdf
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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0102.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0102
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  1. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-89, December.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  3. Awokuse, Titus O. & Yang, Jian, 2002. "The Informational Role Of Commodity Prices In Formulating Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," Staff Papers 15834, University of Delaware, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
  4. Klaas Baks & Charles Frederick Kramer, 1999. "Global Liquidity and Asset Prices; Measurement, Implications, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 99/168, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  6. Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets - An Overinvestment View," MPRA Paper 5201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Wayne D. Angell, 1992. "Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 12(1), pages 185-192, Spring/Su.
  8. David A. Bessler, 1984. "Relative Prices and Money: A Vector Autoregression on Brazilian Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 25-30.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
  10. Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2007. "Commodity prices, money and inflation," Working Paper Series 0738, European Central Bank.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
  13. Allan H. Meltzer, 1995. "Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 49-72, Fall.
  14. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  15. Cody, Brian J & Mills, Leonard O, 1991. "The Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 358-65, May.
  16. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  18. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2008. "Information content of commodity futures prices for monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 274-283, March.
  19. Hua, Ping, 1998. "On Primary Commodity Prices: The Impact of Macroeconomic/Monetary Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 767-790, December.
  20. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-38, November.
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