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Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US

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  • Verheyen, Florian

Abstract

The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and inflation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI inflation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causality tests and SVAR models to US data. The results corroborate the notion that there was a strong link between commodity prices and CPI inflation in the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. For a more recent sample, the relationship has weakened, respectively diminished.

Suggested Citation

  • Verheyen, Florian, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 216, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:216
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    Cited by:

    1. Yanfeng Wei, 2015. "The informational role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy: a reexamination under the frequency domain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 537-549, September.
    2. Delbianco, Fernando & Fioriti, Andrés, 2018. "External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cointegration analysis with breaks," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 88, pages 51-76, January.
    3. Indrė Lapinskaitė & Algita Miečinskienė, 2019. "Assessment of the Impact of Hard Commodity Prices Changes on Inflation in European Union Countries," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(5), pages 18-35.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; commodity prices; infl ation; United States; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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