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A global perspective on inflation and propagation channels

Author

Listed:
  • Gattini, Luca
  • Pill, Huw
  • Schuknecht, Ludger

Abstract

This paper revisits the evidence on the monetary policy transmission channels. It extends the existing literature along three lines: i) it takes a global perspective with aggregate series based on a broader set of countries (ca 70% per cent of the global economy) and a longer time (1960-2010) than previous studies. It, thereby, internalises potential international transmission channels (i.e. via global commodity prices); ii) it examines the interaction between monetary variables, asset prices (notably residential property) and inflation; and iii) it looks at the role of public debt for consumer price developments. On the basis of a VAR analysis, the study finds that i) global money demand shocks affect global inflation and also global commodity prices, which in turn impact on inflation; ii) global asset/property price dynamics appear to respond to financing cost shocks, but not to shocks to global money demand. Moreover, positive house price shocks exert a significant influence on inflation. From a global perspective, the study suggests recognition of global externalities of commodities and asset values as well as the close monitoring of real estate price developments. JEL Classification: E31, E51, E62, C32, F42

Suggested Citation

  • Gattini, Luca & Pill, Huw & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "A global perspective on inflation and propagation channels," Working Paper Series 1462, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121462
    Note: 1549752
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Cronin, 2018. "US inflation and output since the 1970s: a P-star approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 567-591, March.
    2. Rangasamy, L. & Nel, E., 2015. "Reconsidering the role of food prices in South African headline inflation," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 53(4), March.
    3. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Nascimento, Natalia Cunha, 2020. "Monetary policy efficiency and macroeconomic stability: Do financial openness and economic globalization matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
    5. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 681-702, August.
    6. repec:ags:ijag24:346823 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. John A. Tatom, 2017. "Globalization and Inflation: a Swiss Perspective," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 523-545, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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