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International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand

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  • Luca Benati
  • Robert E. Lucas Jr.
  • Juan Pablo Nicolini
  • Warren Weber

Abstract

We explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a dataset comprising 38 countries and relatively long sample periods, extending in some cases to over a century. The evidence supports the existence of a stable long-run relationship between the ratio of M1 to GDP and a short-term interest rate for a large majority of the countries. The log-log specification provides a good characterization of the data, with the exception of periods featuring very low interest rates. An extension of the theory that imposes limits on the amount households can borrow results in a truncated log-log specification, which is in line with what we observe in the data. We estimate the interest rate elasticity to be between 0.3 and 0.6

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Benati & Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Warren Weber, 2020. "International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand," Diskussionsschriften dp2021, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2021
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    Cited by:

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    2. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    3. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres & Carlos Esteban Posada & Hermilson Velásquez, 2020. "Demanda de dinero en América Latina, 1996-2016: una aplicación de cointegración en datos de panel," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE, vol. 85(6), June.
    4. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2021. "Searching for Hysteresis," Working Paper 21-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Raouf Boucekkine & Mohammed Laksaci & Mohamed Touati-Tliba, 2021. "Long-run stability of money demand and monetary policy: the case of Algeria," AMSE Working Papers 2104, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    7. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & PÉPIN, Dominique & MILLER, Stephen M., 2019. "The micro-foundations of an open economy money demand: An application to central and eastern European countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 33-45.
    8. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti, 2018. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 755-787, August.
    9. Hevia, Constantino & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2018. "Monitoring money for price stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 50-63.
    10. Bussière Matthieu & Sahuc Jean-Guillaume & Pfister Christian, 2020. "The link between money and inflation since 2008 [Le lien entre monnaie et inflation depuis 2008]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 232.
    11. Leonardo E. Torre Cepeda & Miguel A. Flores Segovia, 2020. "Private Banking Credit and Economic Growth in Mexico: A State Level Panel Data Analysis 2005-2018," Working Papers 2020-17, Banco de México.
    12. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    13. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2021. "The welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Michael Asiedu & Patrick Bimpong & Thomas Hezkeal Nan Khela & Benedict Arthur, 2021. "Long-Run Money Demand Function: Search for Stability in Twenty (20) Non-EMU Member Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 58-87, March.
    15. Ernst Juerg Weber, 2019. "Copulas and Macroeconomics: the Quantity Theory of Money," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    16. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & Pepin, Dominique, 2018. "Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 841-879.
    17. Dai, Wei & Serletis, Apostolos, 2019. "On the Markov switching welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Benati, Luca, 2020. "Money velocity and the natural rate of interest," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 117-134.
    19. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar & Arwatchanakarn, Popkarn, 2020. "The effect of economic uncertainty on narrow money demand and its stability in New Zealand: An empirical investigation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 88-100.
    20. Daniel Garcés Díaz, 2020. "On the Drivers of Inflation in Different Monetary Regimes," Working Papers 2020-16, Banco de México.
    21. Federico Sturzenegger, 2019. "Macri´s Macro: The meandering road to stability and growth," Working Papers 135, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2019.

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    Keywords

    Long-run money demand; Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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