IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/clg/wpaper/2019-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Markov Switching Welfare Cost of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Apostolos Serletis

    (University of Calgary)

  • Wei Dai

    (University of Calgary)

Abstract

This paper uses the Markov switching approach to account for instabilities in the long- run money demand function and compute the welfare cost of inflation in the United States. In doing so, it circumvents the problem of data-mining of some earlier seminal contributions on these issues, allowing for complicated nonlinear dynamics and sudden changes in the parameters of the money demand function. Moreover, it extends the sample period, and investigates the robustness of results to alternative money demand specifications, monetary aggregation procedures, and assumptions regarding dynamics aspects of the money demand specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Apostolos Serletis & Wei Dai, "undated". "On the Markov Switching Welfare Cost of Inflation," Working Papers 2019-12, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 30 Aug 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2019-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econ.ucalgary.ca/sites/econ.ucalgary.ca.manageprofile/files/unitis/publications/1-9695908/Serletis_and_Dai_Aug_2019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allan H. Meltzer, 1963. "The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 219-219.
    2. Cysne, Rubens Penha & Turchick, David, 2010. "Welfare costs of inflation when interest-bearing deposits are disregarded: A calculation of the bias," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1015-1030, June.
    3. Luca Benati & Robert Lucas, Jr. & Juan Nicolini & Warren Weber, 2016. "International Evidence on Long Run Money Demand," Working Papers id:11152, eSocialSciences.
    4. Ascari, Guido & Phaneuf, Louis & Sims, Eric R., 2018. "On the welfare and cyclical implications of moderate trend inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 56-71.
    5. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 210-224, December.
    6. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-415, June.
    9. Ali Jadidzadeh & Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "The Demand for Assets and Optimal Monetary Aggregation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(4), pages 929-952, June.
    10. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    11. Barnett, William A, 1997. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1171-1185, July.
    12. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
    13. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Measuring Consumer Preferences and Estimating Demand Systems," MPRA Paper 12318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren E., 2017. "Online Appendix for: International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand," Working Papers 738, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Pablo Kurlat, 2018. "Deposit Spreads and the Welfare Cost of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 25385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Welfare cost of inflation; Markov regime switching; Divisia money;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2019-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/declgca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.