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A Time-Varying Approach Of The Us Welfare Cost Of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Miller, Stephen M.
  • Martins, Luis Filipe
  • Gupta, Rangan

Abstract

Money-demand specifications exhibit instability, especially for long spans of data. This paper reconsiders the welfare cost of inflation for the US economy using a flexible time-varying (TV) cointegration methodology to estimate the money-demand function. We find evidence that the TV cointegration estimation provides a better fit of the actual data than a time-invariant estimation and that the throughout unitary income elasticity only exists for the log–log form over the entire sample period. Our estimate of the welfare cost of inflation for a 10% inflation rate lies in the range of 0.025–0.75% of gross domestic product (GDP) and averages 0.27%. In sum, our findings fall well within the ranges of existing studies of the welfare cost of inflation. We find that the welfare cost averages 7.4% higher during expansions than recessions for 10% inflation rate. Finally, the interest elasticity of money demand shows substantial variability over our sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Stephen M. & Martins, Luis Filipe & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A Time-Varying Approach Of The Us Welfare Cost Of Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 775-797, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:02:p:775-797_00
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-548 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin, 2018. "Money demand stability, monetary overhang and inflation forecast in the CEE countries," Working Papers hal-01720319, HAL.
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-471 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2023. "Consumer preferences, the demand for Divisia money, and the welfare costs of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Andrey Polbin & Anton Skrobotov, 2022. "On decrease in oil price elasticity of GDP and investment in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 5-24.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-461 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & PÉPIN, Dominique & MILLER, Stephen M., 2019. "The micro-foundations of an open economy money demand: An application to central and eastern European countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 33-45.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-476 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-562 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-459 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-465 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-516 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 87, pages 197-211.
    14. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "The Growth-Inflation Nexus for the US over 1801-2013: A Semiparametric Approach," Working Papers 15-17, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    15. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-553 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-585 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-473 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Wohar, Mark E., 2023. "Are real interest rates a monetary phenomenon? Evidence from 700 years of data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-466 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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